Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Blue Jays at Phillies

10:40 pm • SN1

Toronto Blue Jays

11-6

1 - 10

Philadelphia Phillies

8-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Sanchez			3.32	11-9
J.Berrios			3.60	16-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 11-6	-1.5+164	o8-111	-102
Phillies 8-8	+1.5-196	u8-109	-117

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

PHI -113

0.88u

PHI -118

0.85u

J.Berrios u5.5 Ks-125

1.25u

He just doesn’t miss enough bats - 18th percentile in whiff rate, despite a 16 whiff performance vs a terrible Rockies lineup. Phillies with a 19.3% K% vs righties over the L2 weeks (8th best), and more specifically,the 8th lowest called strike rate. Just don’t see Berrios getting into enough 2 strike counts vs this lineup.

PHI -120

0.83u

Phillies have won 10 in a row at home and the Blue Jays are schuffling.

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-103

1.03u

PHI -125

0.8u

B.Bichette u1.5 Total Bases-122

PHI -1.5+160

0.8u

Best mf team in baseball

PHI -2.5+240

1.2u

The best god dang team in baseball

PHI -130

0.77u

Best team in baseball

TOR +120

PHI -124

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

PHI -125 (F5)

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

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Featured Insight
Phillies hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44% over the last two weeks -- fifth best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 46% against the Blue Jays RPs over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.

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The Phillies are 115-83 (.581) since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 35-65 (.350) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Blue Jays are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Bryce Harper is slugging .500 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 86th Percentile. Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 30% of the time since last season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (218/630) this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (153/374) against right-handed batters this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (278/567) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 16% -- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (88/127) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	SF	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	PHI -234
May 5th	SF	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	PHI -111
May 4th	SF	W 14-3	-1.5 W	O 7	PHI -172
May 3rd	SF	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	PHI -180
May 1st	@LAA	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -207

Weston Wilson
OF
Wilson is out with oblique
Out

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	90	3.2	7	8
RT.Richards, P	18	1.1	1	0
LG.Cabrera, P	15	1	1	0
RZ.Pop, P	3	1	0	0
LT.Mayza, P	22	0.2	1	2
RE.Swanson, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-4	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	0-3	0	0
3J.Turner, 3B	1-4	0	0
3E.Clement, 3B	0-0	0	0
4B.Bichette, SS	0-4	0	0
5D.Schneider, LF	0-3	0	0
6D.Jansen, DH	2-3	1	0
6D.Vogelbach, PH	0-1	0	0
7A.Kirk, C	1-3	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	1-3	0	1
9K.Kiermaier, CF	0-2	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sanchez, P		89	7	5	1
RS.Turnbull, P		33	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	1	0	0
2W.Merrifield, LF	1-5	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	3-3	2	1	4
4N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	1
5B.Marsh, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
7E.Sosa, SS	1-3	2	0	1
8K.Clemens, 3B	2-4	2	1	4
9G.Stubbs, C	0-2	1	0	0