Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - June 25, 2024

Blue Jays at Red Sox

11:10 pm • SNET

Toronto Blue Jays

12-7

9 - 4

Boston Red Sox

11-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Bello			4.49	14-8
K.Gausman			3.83	14-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 12-7	-1.5	+1.5-180	o9.5-106	+110
Red Sox 11-7	u9	-1.5+150	u9.5-113	-130

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

June 25, 2024

Fenway ParkBoston

TOR +102

1.02u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.05u

TOR +105

1.05u

Gausman has a 1.86 road ERA. Bello has a 6.46 ERA in his last three starts and closer Jansen likely unavailable having pitched the last 3 days.

K.Gausman o5.5 Hits Allowed-115

1.15u

B.Bello o1.5 BB-130

0.77u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.05u

TOR +108

$54.00

B.Bello o1.5 BB-129

Bello over this line in 10/L11 starts. His zone% of 48.4% (per statcast) ranks 137th of 161 pitchers with 40+ innings. The Blue Jays have maintained an above average walk rate vs righties all season (hovering between 8.5%-9.5%), and have the second lowest chase rate.

Featured Insight
Blue Jays had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score last season -- lowest in MLB. The Red Sox answered-back in just 29% of innings after an opponent scored last season -- tied for fifth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 65% of their games this month -- fourth highest in MLB. Blue Jays have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 67% of their games this month -- third highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

86% of non-fastball strikeouts for Jarren Duran are located out of the zone this season -- third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. 81% of Kevin Gausman non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 96th Percentile.

Rafael Devers has an OPS of .700 with two strikes this season -- 14th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Kevin Gausman has allowed an OPS of .656 (193 PAs) with two strikes this season -- second worst among qualified SPs-- second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (24/172) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of .614 (27 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 -- third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (155/255) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season -- 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 45% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 24th	TOR	W 7-6	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BOS -165
Jun 23rd	@CIN	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 9.5	BOS +136
Jun 22nd	@CIN	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 9.5	BOS -118
Jun 21st	@CIN	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 9	CIN -115
Jun 19th	@TOR	W 7-3	+1.5 W	O 8	BOS +120

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Gausman, P	96	6	5	3
LB.Little, P	26	1	2	0
RT.Richards, P	21	1	2	0
RC.Green, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Bichette, SS	0-4	1	0	0
2S.Horwitz, 2B	0-2	2	0	0
2E.Clement, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3V.Guerrero, 1B	2-5	1	0	4
4J.Turner, DH	1-4	0	0	1
5G.Springer, RF	3-5	1	1	2
6A.Barger, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6D.Schneider, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7D.Jansen, C	1-4	1	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
9K.Kiermaier, CF	3-4	2	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Bello, P	52	2.1	2	7
RG.Weissert, P	6	0.2	0	0
RJ.Winckowski, P	91	6	8	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	0-5	0	0	0
1J.Duran, LF	0-5	0	0	0
2E.Valdez, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
3W.Abreu, RF	0-3	0	0	0
3R.Gonzalez, PH	0-0	0	0	0
3R.Gonzalez, SS	0-0	0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
5T.O'Neill, LF	1-3	2	1	2
5T.O'Neill, RF	1-3	2	1	2
6M.Yoshida, DH	1-4	0	0	1
7D.Smith, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-4	0	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	0-4	0	0	0