Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2023

Blue Jays at Yankees

11:05 pm • Apple TV+

Toronto Blue Jays

11-6

6 - 1

New York Yankees

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.German			4.56	5-7
Y.Kikuchi			3.87	11-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 11-6	+1.5-181	o8.5-106	+115
Yankees 8-9	-1.5+150	u8.5-115	-137

Friday 11:05 p.m.

April 21, 2023

Yankee StadiumBronx

Y.Kikuchi u5.5 Ks-115

Yankees will have 8 RHB in tonight’s lineup which will ding Kikuchi’s K rate as well as being on the road. Home plate ump Adrian Johnson tends to squeeze pitchers too. Projecting closer to -170

NYY -130

2.6u

NYY -138

1.38u

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.83u

NYY -130 (F5)

0.65u

Under 8.5-104

Over 4.5 (F5)-115

TOR o4+100

NYY -134

Available at FanDuel. I've got the Yankees at 65.7% versus 57.3% implied, I'm guessing in large part because I'm skeptical that Yusei Kikuchi has fully cured his issues from last year. His SIERA is low, but he's still letting up a 48.8% hard-hit rate and 44.2% fly-ball rate. Against this lineup in this park, that's rough. Domingo German, on the other hand, has good underlying data -- though there is some concern that his last start may have been aided by a sticky substance on his hands that he was forced to wash off. I'm fine being above market on the Yankees in this spot.

D.LeMahieu o1.5 Total Bases+136

0.5u

LeMahieu .455 OBP lifetime v Kikuchi

NYY -135

1.35u

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to 8.5 (-102)

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The Blue Jays are 16-15 (.516) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Yankees are 20-25 (.444) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .196.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 20th	LAA	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYY -159
Apr 19th	LAA	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9	NYY -139
Apr 18th	LAA	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 9.5	LAA -158
Apr 16th	MIN	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 7	NYY -167
Apr 15th	MIN	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY -145

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

Giancarlo Stanton
DH
Stanton is out with elbow
Out

Clarke Schmidt
P
Schmidt is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LY.Kikuchi, P	90	6	3	1
RE.Swanson, P	10	1	1	0
RT.Richards, P	17	1	2	0
RY.Garcia, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-5	1	0	0
2B.Bichette, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3V.Guerrero, DH	2-4	2	1	2
4M.Chapman, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Varsho, LF	0-4	1	0	0
6B. Belt, 1B	2-4	1	1	4
7D.Jansen, C	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Biggio, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9K.Kiermaier, CF	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.German, P	91	6	6	4
RA. Abreu, P	44	2	4	2
RG.Weissert, P	19	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Judge, RF	1-4	0	0	0
3A.Rizzo, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4G.Torres, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
5D.LeMahieu, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6O.Peraza, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7O.Cabrera, LF	1-3	1	1	1
8K.Higashioka, C	1-3	0	0	0
9I.Kiner-Falefa, CF	1-2	0	0	0