Braves vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 5, 2023

Braves at Cardinals

5:15 pm • MLB Network

Atlanta Braves

7-7

5 - 2

St. Louis Cardinals

8-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Mikolas			4.78	9-13
B.Elder			3.81	12-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 7-7	+1.5-182	o9-112	+110
Cardinals 8-10	-1.5+150	u9-107	-130

Wednesday 5:15 p.m.

April 05, 2023

Busch StadiumSt. Louis

ATL u4.5-125

STL -121

1.21u

think this has gotten too short

M.Mikolas u4.5 Ks-115

1.15u

BetMGM: don’t be fooled by his 6 Ks and 16.2 K/9 after his opening start. His high K rate had a lot to do with it was the only way he was able to get hitters out thanks to a .714 BABIP allowed. Mikolas had a dreadful 43% first pitch strike rate and only a 9% swinging strike rate. This Braves lineup is very tough to K and I think with improved BABIP luck we will see his K rate drop quite a bit going forward. Projecting this closer to -155

STL -120

STL -130

1.3u

STL -130

1.3u

Over 9-115

1.15u

ATL +120

0.6u

Bet to +114

STL -134

$67.00

STL -130

1.3u

B.Elder o3.5 Ks-130

0.77u

Available at FanDuel. Elder seems to be fully stretched out after going six innings in a Triple-A game last week. He had a stretch last year where his strikeouts spiked as he underwent a tweak in his pitch mix. Even if we assume most of those gains go away (he did face a soft schedule, after all), I've still got Elder's strikeout projection at 4.63 for today. It's a tough assignment to face the Cardinals on the road, but I think Elder showed last year he's good enough to get the job done.

ATL +106

0.53u

Keeping units low here until I have a larger sample on whether my MLB moneyline is performing well. Available at FanDuel. I've got the Braves at 50.9% to win, up from 48.5% implied. Bryce Elder had good results and decent peripherals in a small sample in the majors last year and will get the start for the Braves. If he struggles, the Braves' bullpen behind him is pretty lights out. Both offenses are very good here, but I think the plus money on the Braves is alluring enough to pull the trigger.

Under 9+102

1.02u

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 5, 2023 UTC

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The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 -- best in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Braves are 51-12 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season -- 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Cardinals are 50-10 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

53% of Travis d'Arnaud strikeouts were looking over the last 30 days -- third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. 37% of Miles Mikolas strikeouts were looking over the last 30 days -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .500 (10-for-20) against Miles Mikolas this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cardinals are 38-43 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Cardinals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	80-82	42-39	38-43	28-49	51-33
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cardinals	74-83-5	37-42-2	37-41-3	39-38	34-45-5
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	83-79	44-37	39-42	39-38	43-41
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	ATL	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 9.5	ATL -139
Apr 3rd	ATL	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	ATL +102
Apr 2nd	TOR	W 9-4	-1.5 W	O 8	STL -120
Apr 1st	TOR	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8	STL +114
Mar 30th	TOR	L 9-10	+1.5 W	O 7.5	TOR -110

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Elder, P	79	6	6	0
RM.Tonkin, P	17	1	1	1
LD.Lee, P	14	0.2	0	0
RC. McHugh, P	27	1	0	1
RJ.Chavez, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	2	0	0
2M.Olson, 1B	3-5	2	1	3
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	0	1
4T.d'Arnaud, C	0-4	0	0	0
5M.Harris, CF	1-4	0	0	0
6O.Albies, 2B	1-3	0	0	1
7M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Rosario, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Mikolas, P	98	6	6	5
LP. Naughton, P	20	1	0	0
RC.Stratton, P	28	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Donovan, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
2A.Burleson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	0-1	0	0	0
3P.Goldschmidt, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4N.Arenado, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
5N.Gorman, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6D.Carlson, CF	1-4	1	0	0
7J.Walker, RF	2-4	1	1	2
8T.Edman, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9A.Knizner, C	0-2	0	0	0
9T.O'Neill, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.O'Neill, LF	0-1	0	0	0