Braves vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2023

Braves at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Atlanta Braves

0-2

6 - 0

Miami Marlins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Alcantara			4.14	7-12
B.Elder			3.81	12-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	+1.5-200	o8-110	+101
Marlins 0-0	-1.5+169	u8-110	-120

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

May 02, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

Over 4 (F5)-120

1.2u

Fading Elder & Alcantara. Huge negative regrsssion looming for Elder while Alcantara has concerning advanced numbers in line w/ his struggles in ‘23

B.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+138

0.5u

Another fade of Elder in the middle of the lineup and has success against the RHP (2/3 with 2B/HR). In the 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate and one of the better hitters in MIA lineup

L.Arraez o1.5 Total Bases+117

0.5u

Best hitter in the Marlins lineup against Elder, who should struggle significantly and negatively regress. He’s B5% in hard-hit rate (52.4%) and has an xERA of 5.08, nearly three runs higher than actual (2.17). Arraez isn’t a huge power hitter, but can hit 2Bs and should see 4-5 ABs. Best pure hitter in baseball Forgot to check FD because it’s normally worse odds but there’s a +125!

MIA -120

0.6u

MIA -135

1.35u

ATL +126

0.63u

Bet to +123

Over 4 (F5)-120

1.2u

Over 7.5-110

1.1u

Over 4 (F5)-110

0.55u

Bet to -120

Over 7.5-110

0.55u

Bet to 8 (-106)

ATL -117

Project Elder higher even after serving up his only three home runs last time out to the Fish. Both he an Alcantara produced a healthy amount of ground balls, bullpen is the difference in price

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Tuesday
Billy Ward•
May 2, 2023 UTC
Tuesday MLB Props: Buy Elder, Fade Kopech
Alex Hinton•
May 2, 2023 UTC
Braves vs. Marlins: Edge on Total in Elder vs. Alcantara
Doug Ziefel•
May 2, 2023 UTC
Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Tuesday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
May 2, 2023 UTC

See more MLB Coverage

The Marlins are 10-6 (.625) at home this season -- tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Braves are 47-6 (.887) when they've scored in the first inning since last season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .654.

The Braves are 4-2 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Marlins are 46-5 (.902) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

Ronald Acuna is batting .320 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 100% of Sandy Alcantara fastballs are 95+ MPH since last season -- highest among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

Ronald Acuna is batting .571 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- best in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Sandy Alcantara has an average fastball velocity of 97.7 MPH this season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Bryce Elder allowed a batting average of .322 vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)-- ninth Percentile and just .143 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (fourth best among qualified SPs)-- 94th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	CHC	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIA +150
Apr 29th	CHC	W 7-6	-1.5 L	O 9	MIA -125
Apr 28th	CHC	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIA +104
Apr 27th	@ATL	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIA +145
Apr 26th	@ATL	L 4-6	+1.5 L	O 8	ATL +122

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RB.Elder, P	96	7	6
RK.Yates, P	28	1	2
RJ.Jimenez, P	12	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-3	0	0	1
2M.Olson, 1B	1-3	2	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
4S.Murphy, C	0-2	0	0	1
5E.Rosario, LF	1-5	0	0	1
6O.Albies, 2B	2-4	1	1	1
7M.Harris, CF	1-5	1	0	0
8M.Ozuna, DH	2-4	1	0	0
9V.Grissom, SS	0-2	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Alcantara, P	103	5	5	3
RM.Barnes, P	19	1	1	0
LS.Okert, P	12	1	2	0
RJ. Quezada, P	32	0.2	0	3
LA.Nardi, P	15	1.1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3Y.Gurriel, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4L.Arraez, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
4X.Edwards, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5B.De La Cruz, LF	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Sanchez, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7J. Segura, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Stallings, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Berti, SS	1-2	0	0	0