Braves vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2024

Braves at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Atlanta Braves

0-2

4 - 8

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Senga			3.38	1-0
C.Morton			4.19	8-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	+1.5-192	o7.5-115	+114
Mets 7-6	-1.5+160	u7.5-105	-135

Friday 11:10 p.m.

July 26, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

Over 7.5-112

0.89u

ATL +114

$877.19

NYM -130

0.77u

Mets are hot, Braves aren't. Injuries to star hitters have taken a major toll on the Braves.

Under 7.5+100

ATL +110

BP6

Under 8.5-115

0.5u

Flat to 8 (-110); betting before Thursday’s game so may adjust staking or price target depending on pen use

Featured Insight
The Braves have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season -- tied for lowest in MLB. The Mets have scored first in just 45% of their games since last season -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 33% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 50% against LHP over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB.

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The Braves are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Jarred Kelenic has struck out in 28% of PA's this season -- 15th highest in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Dedniel Nunez has a strikeout rate of 35% this season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

J.D. Martinez has struck out in 28% of PA's since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Pierce Johnson has a strikeout rate of 32% since the 2022 season -- tied for 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,110/2,405) vs left-handed batters since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB; League Avg: 17% -- 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 707 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% -- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 25th	ATL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7	NYM +100
Jul 24th	@NYY	W 12-3	+1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM +143
Jul 23rd	@NYY	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +130
Jul 22nd	@MIA	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM -148
Jul 21st	@MIA	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIA -142

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	60	2.2	2	5
RD.Hernandez, P	38	1.1	2	1
LA.Bummer, P	33	2	3	0
LA.Minter, P	13	1	0	0
RJ.Chavez, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	0-3	0	0	0
1R.Laureano, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	2-3	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
5T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	0	0
6E.Rosario, LF	0-4	1	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	2-4	2	2	3
8N.Alvarez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Senga, P	73	5.1	9	2
RE.Orze, P	25	1.2	1	1
RA.Ottavino, P	31	1	1	0
LJ.Diekman, P	18	1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	0-3	2	0	0
3J.Martinez, DH	3-4	1	1	4
3D.Stewart, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3D.Stewart, DH	0-1	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, RF	1-4	1	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	2-3	1	1	3
7J.Iglesias, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
8F.Alvarez, C	1-4	1	1	1
9T.Taylor, CF	0-4	1	0	0