Brewers vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - March 30, 2023

Brewers at Cubs

6:20 pm • MARQ

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

0 - 4

Chicago Cubs

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Stroman			3.95	10-9
C.Burnes			3.39	10-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	-1.5+130	o6.5-120	-140
Cubs 0-0	+1.5-155	u6.5+100	+116

Thursday 6:20 p.m.

March 30, 2023

Wrigley FieldChicago

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)+164

0.82u

C.Burnes u1.5 BB+140

Burnes will likely be limited to ~85 pitches today which gives us some sneaky value on this prop. Plus, the Cubs lineup today walks at a ~1% lower rate than league average. Burnes also begins the season with a lower BB% rate (4.8% in March/April compared to 6.7% overall). Home plate ump Ron Kulpa tends to allow a lower BB% rate than league average. Projecting him staying under this 55% of the time so the plus odds are nice

MIL -130 (F5)

1.3u

MIL -125

1.25u

MIL -125

0.63u

MIL -120

1.2u

This line is genuinely a bit shocking for me. Burnes at a near PK vs Stroman who’s advanced numbers are alarming 40.7% hard-hit rate & .254 xBA are both bottom 26% of pitchers last year. He’s not striking out anyone and has seen his barrel rate slowly rise. No Seiya and am not particularly high on this “new” cubs offense that has Swanson/Hosmer/Bellinger. Maybe if this was 2016, but not in ‘23

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 28th	CWS	W 8-5	+1.5 W	O 10	CHC +114
Mar 27th	CWS	W 6-6	-1.5 L	O 9.5	CWS -134
Mar 26th	KC	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	CHC -200
Mar 25th	@LAA	L 7-8	-	-	LAA +108
Mar 25th	@CLE	L 3-5	-	-	-

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Burnes, P	87	5	3	4
RP.Strzelecki, P	10	1	0	0
RG.Varland, P	19	1	1	0
RJ. Guerra, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	0-2	0	0	0
2J.Winker, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	1-3	0	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	0	0
6L.Urias, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7G.Mitchell, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8B.Anderson, RF	1-2	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RM.Stroman, P	90	6	8
RK.Thompson, P	14	1	1
RB. Boxberger, P	14	1	1
RM. Fulmer, P	15	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	1	0
2D.Swanson, SS	3-4	1	1
3I.Happ, LF	1-2	1	0
4C.Bellinger, CF	0-3	0	0
5T. Mancini, DH	1-3	0	1
6Y.Gomes, C	0-4	0	1
7E. Hosmer, 1B	0-4	0	0
8P.Wisdom, 3B	0-3	0	0
9M.Mastrobuoni, RF	0-3	1	0