Cubs vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - August 7, 2023

Cubs at Mets

11:10 pm • MLB Network

Chicago Cubs

0-0

2 - 11

New York Mets

7-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 0-0	+1.5-196	o9-110	-105
Mets 7-6	-1.5+165	u9-110	-112

Monday 11:10 p.m.

August 07, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM -104

got too cheap

NYM -105

0.95u

CHC +100

CHC +102

CHC +124 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +119

K.Senga u17.5 Outs-115

1.15u

Mets rolling with Senga on 4 days rest for only the third time this season (5 and 2.2 IP last two). His strike percentage was down in each start, which is even worse for him, since his strike percentage is at the bottom of the league. And facing a red hot Cubs offense - 164 wRC+ vs righties last 2 weeks. Cubs see a ton of pitches, and have already seen Senga (5 IP 6 H 3 R 5 BB). They have the seventh lowest chase rate, a bad match for Senga, since he relies on out of zone swings. This line is high due to Senga’s success at home this season (2.40 ERA) but the matchup is strong, and the days of rest split is the main driver of this projection. I have him finishing 5 innings at 96 pitches.

CHC +116

0.5u

Bet to +114

Featured Insight
Cubs Right Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against LHP since last season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB. MetsRPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- eighth-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Cubs have scored 2.8 runs per game in the first five innings over the last two weeks -- seventh-highest in MLB (125 games). The Mets have allowed 2.7 runs per game in the first five innings over the last two weeks -- ninth-highest in MLB (122 games).

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 6th	@BAL	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL +165
Aug 5th	@BAL	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 9.5	BAL +144
Aug 4th	@BAL	L 3-10	+1.5 L	O 9.5	BAL +125
Aug 3rd	@KC	L 2-9	-1.5 L	O 9.5	KC -106
Aug 3rd	@KC	L 0-4	-1.5 L	U 9	KC -154

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Smyly, P	97	5	5	7
RC.Kilian, P	5	1	0	0
RD.Palencia, P	37	1	0	3
RT.Barnhart, P	13	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Tauchman, RF	1-5	0	0
1M.Tauchman, CF	1-5	0	0
2N.Hoerner, 2B	2-4	1	0
2N.Hoerner, SS	2-4	1	0
3I.Happ, LF	1-4	0	0
4C.Bellinger, CF	3-3	0	2
4S.Suzuki, PH	0-1	0	0
4S.Suzuki, RF	0-1	0	0
5D.Swanson, SS	0-3	0	0
5P.Wisdom, PH	1-1	0	0
5P.Wisdom, 3B	1-1	0	0
6J.Candelario, 1B	0-4	0	0
7C.Morel, DH	0-2	0	0
8Y.Gomes, C	0-4	0	0
9N.Madrigal, 3B	1-4	1	0
9N.Madrigal, 2B	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Senga, P	85	6	6	2
LB.Raley, P	28	1.2	2	0
RD.Smith, P	5	0.1	1	0
RJ. Yacabonis, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-5	0	0	0
1D.Stewart, RF	0-0	0	0	0
2F.Alvarez, C	1-4	2	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	3-4	3	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	3-4	2	2	6
5M.Vientos, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, RF	1-2	2	0	0
6J.McNeil, LF	1-2	2	0	0
7D.Mendick, 3B	2-4	2	1	3
8R.Ortega, LF	2-4	0	0	0
8R.Ortega, CF	2-4	0	0	0
9J. Araúz, 2B	0-3	0	0	1