Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - June 6, 2024

Cubs at Reds

11:10 pm • MARQ

Chicago Cubs

11-5

4 - 8

Cincinnati Reds

9-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
H.Greene			2.75	9-5
J.Assad			3.74	7-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 11-5	+1.5-185	o9.5-107	+110
Reds 9-12	-1.5+154	u9.5-112	-130

Thursday 11:10 p.m.

June 06, 2024

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

Over 9.5-105

$1285.71

Under 5.5 (F5)-140

0.36u

CHC +0.5 (F5)-130

0.5u

CHC +108

CHC +105

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-125

CIN u4.5 Team Total-110

1.1u

CIN -125

1.5u

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-119

1.19u

Back on this matchup again - Assad is under in 7/12 (only has finished 6 IP three times) and coming off three straight games where he’s pitched closer to the 3.72 xERA would suggest, after his blistering start. 4.09 pitches per PA (14th highest of 125) and a 62.1% strike% (105th). Reds with the 11th highest pitches per PA, and notably the 4th lowest chase rate. I do worry about them a bit coming off a series at Coors, but the conditions at GABP are fantastic for hitting today (per Ballpark Pal).

Featured Insight
Cubs RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season -- second highest in MLB. Reds have struck out 24% since last season -- tied for fifth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Reds have scored 5.8 runs per game over the last week -- tied for second highest in MLB (6 games). The Cubs have allowed 6.2 runs per game over the last week -- tied for fourth highest in MLB (6 games).

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The Reds are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

33% of Cody Bellinger strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. 58% of Hunter Greene's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

28% of Seiya Suzuki strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 87th Percentile. 55% of Hunter Greene's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since the 2022 season -- sixth highest among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has walked 5 of 18 batters (28%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days -- highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 5th	@COL	W 12-7	-1.5 W	O 12	CIN -148
Jun 5th	@COL	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN -130
Jun 4th	@COL	W 13-3	-1.5 W	O 11	CIN -115
Jun 2nd	@CHC	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7	CIN +104
Jun 1st	@CHC	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 7	CHC +125

Nico Hoerner
IF
Hoerner is out with elbow
Out

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	92	5.2	7	5
LL.Little, P	9	0.1	0	1
RP.Hodge, P	21	0.2	0	2
RK.Hendricks, P	17	1.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Tauchman, RF	0-3	0	0	0
2S.Suzuki, DH	2-4	1	1	2
3C.Bellinger, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Morel, 3B	1-3	1	1	2
5I.Happ, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Hoerner, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9M.Amaya, C	1-3	1	0	0
9M.Busch, PH	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	111	6.2	8	4
RF.Cruz, P	6	0.1	1	0
LS.Moll, P	19	1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	18	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	1-4	1	0	1
2E.De La Cruz, SS	1-5	1	1	3
3J.Candelario, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
3B.Dunn, PR	0-1	1	0	0
3B.Dunn, LF	0-1	1	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Fraley, DH	1-3	1	0	0
6T.Stephenson, C	2-2	2	0	0
7J.Hurtubise, LF	0-1	1	0	0
7S.Espinal, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8J.India, 2B	1-3	0	0	2
9W.Benson, RF	2-4	1	0	2