Cubs vs. White Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - July 27, 2023

The White Sox let Lynn get his pitches in, but this is a really tough spot for him to go >6 innings. 24/L25 righties under this line vs CHC (exception was Gerrit Cole). They lead the league in pitches per PA, and really work the count. Great hitting weather, and the Sox bullpen is in good shape (off day Monday and only two relievers used yesterday). Lynn is under in 14/20.

Available at FanDuel. This number has bounced around all morning (it was +102 a few minutes ago), and there's a chance it moves again soon. But as long as the White Sox are underdogs, I think they're a quality bet. My model puts them at 55.6% to win versus 48.5% implied. They're up there because Lance Lynn has been on a heater since reintroducing his curveball. It's a seven-start sample, and he has a 3.30 SIERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate in that time. He hasn't had the best results, but his batted-ball data is largely fine, and he has faced some tough teams. This time around, he's at home against a team with a league-average wRC+ against righties. The White Sox's offense is rough, but it's possible getting Yoan Moncada back can help at least a bit. I agree with the model that the market is too light on the Sox here.

Bet to -122 or 9 (-103)