Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - August 30, 2023

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

2:10 am • MLB Network

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

1 - 9

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Kershaw			2.46	13-5
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 0-0	+1.5-140	o7.5-122	+152
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5+115	u7.5-110	-185

Wednesday 2:10 a.m.

August 30, 2023

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

LAD -1.5+125

1.25u

ARI +1.5-130

2.6u

ARI +170

0.5u

Over 8-110

0.5u

Bet to -114

ARI +176

0.7u

Available at FanDuel. There is a combination of factors putting me on Arizona here. First, Clayton Kershaw's velocity hasn't looked great since he came off the IL, sitting about 0.7 miles per hour lower on his fastball and 0.6 miles per hour lower on his slider. He has still been effective because he's Clayton Kershaw, but it's not as lights out as he was earlier in the year. Second, Merrill Kelly has looked really good since he came back -- even *with* his velo down a bit. Across seven starts, Kelly has a 3.55 SIERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate. In his one start in this span against the Dodgers (back on August 9th, so not super super recent), he threw six shutout innings. I've got the Diamondbacks' win odds above 40% while their implied odds are just 36.2%.

ARI +165 (F5)

0.5u

Bet365 1:19.

ARI +175

0.5u

Bet to +166

Featured Insight
The Dodgers have scored 1.6 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- highest in MLB (143 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- highest in MLB (180 games).

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Featured Insight
The Dodgers have scored 1.7 runs per game in late innings over the last two weeks -- tied for highest in MLB (143 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 1.5 runs per game in late innings over the last two weeks -- seventh-highest in MLB (144 games).

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The Dodgers are 37-41 (.474) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .359.

James Outman has struck out in 32% of PA's this season -- second highest in MLB-- first Percentile. Paul Sewald has a strikeout rate of 33% this season -- 15th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Mookie Betts has a miss rate of only 10% on outside fastballs since last season -- third best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Merrill Kelly has located his fastball away 50% of the time since last season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 87th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 29th	ARI	W 7-4	-1.5 W	O 8	LAD -155
Aug 27th	@BOS	W 7-4	-1.5 W	O 9.5	LAD -120
Aug 26th	@BOS	L 5-8	-1.5 L	O 10	BOS -130
Aug 25th	@BOS	W 7-4	-1.5 W	O 10	LAD -130
Aug 24th	@CLE	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 9	LAD -130

Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	87	5	1	7
RS.McGough, P	20	1	1	2
RM.Castro, P	14	1	1	0
RJ.Herrera, P	11	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Marte, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
1G.Perdomo, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
2B.Kennedy, DH	0-3	0	0	0
2A.Thomas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2A.Thomas, DH	0-1	0	0	0
3T.Pham, RF	1-3	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4J. Peterson, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
5L.Gurriel, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6E. Longoria, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7C.Carroll, CF	2-4	1	1	1
8N.Ahmed, SS	1-3	0	0	0
9G.Moreno, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Kershaw, P	79	5	5	1
RG.Varland, P	31	1	1	0
RT.Miller, P	20	2	2	0
LV.Gonzalez, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, 2B	2-3	2	1	1
1A.Rosario, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
2F.Freeman, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
2M.Busch, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
3W.Smith, C	2-5	1	1	1
4M.Muncy, 3B	1-3	3	0	0
5D.Peralta, DH	3-4	1	0	2
6J.Heyward, RF	3-4	0	0	2
7J.Outman, CF	1-3	1	0	1
8C.Taylor, LF	3-3	1	0	1
9M.Rojas, SS	1-4	0	0	1