Giants vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Hayden Birdsong, despite limited MLB experience, brings an intriguing arsenal that could be a difference-maker in this matchup. His 111 Stuff+ rating highlights his raw ability, with a knack for generating strikeouts, evidenced by his 27.2% K-rate in the majors and 34.4% in the minors. Though his command can be erratic (14.4% walk rate), Birdsong's recent outing against the Brewers suggests he may be turning a corner. In that performance, Birdsong posted impressive metrics: 112 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 107 Pitching+, going 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits and 0 runs. His ability to mix pitches effectively—particularly his elite changeup (155 Stuff+), slider (120), and curveball (115)—should help him neutralize a Baltimore offense that's been struggling in the second half of the season. Although Birdsong's fastball shape has been hittable (.444 xwOBA), the Orioles' lineup ranks only 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since the trade deadline. This suggests Birdsong may not be overly punished for his weaknesses. Dean Kremer, meanwhile, has been steady but unspectacular, with a 4.48 xERA and a middling 98 Pitching+ in 2024. Projection systems suggest he's only marginally better than Birdsong, and his 12.6% K-BB% leaves much to be desired. With Birdsong's ability to generate swings and misses, the gap between these two starters isn't as wide as it appears on paper. The Giants’ bullpen ranks among the top 5 in expected FIP and holds the 4th-best botERA in the league. While Baltimore's bullpen is statistically better, they've posted a concerning 8.61 ERA over the last three games, suggesting recent volatility could be a problem. Offensively, both teams have struggled down the stretch, with the Orioles sporting a 96 wRC+ since the trade deadline and the Giants at an even lower 88 against righties. However, given Baltimore’s sub-.500 second-half record and their recent bullpen struggles, this feels like a game where San Francisco's edge in the pitching department, both in the starting matchup and bullpen, could be decisive.