Guardians vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - July 27, 2024

Guardians at Phillies

10:05 pm • BSGL

Cleveland Guardians

3-4

0 - 8

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Phillips			6.87	4-1
C.Carrasco			5.64	3-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 3-4	+1.5-153	o9.5+100	+135
Phillies 1-3	-1.5+128	u9.5-120	-161

Saturday 10:05 p.m.

July 27, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

T.Turner o3.5 Total Bases+290

0.25u

T.Turner o1.5 Total Bases-115

1.15u

Under 9.5-120

0.5u

PHI -142

0.7u

C.Carrasco u4.5 Ks-125

1.25u

Projection lands at 3.89 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -167 on Pinnacle giving us value at this number

CLE +1.5-143

Under 9+100

0.5u

Bet to -105

Featured Insight
Guardians have won 60% of their games that have been decided by one run or less this season -- tied for second best in MLB. Phillies have won just 37% of their games that have been decided by one run or less this season -- worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Phillies RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters this season -- highest in MLB. Guardians right-handed hitters have struck out 24% against LHP this season -- fifth highest in MLB.

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The Phillies are just 3-5 (.375) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.

The Phillies are 49-30 (.620) after a home loss since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

Trea Turner is slugging .540 this season -- 13th best among hitters with at least 151 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Ben Lively has allowed a SLG of .489 vs right-handed batters this season -- 13th worst among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP-- 12th Percentile.

Andres Gimenez has an OPS of just .628 this season -- ninth worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Jeff Hoffman has allowed an OPS of just .501 (171 PAs) this season -- 14th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Tyler Phillips has allowed an OBP of just .136 (22 PA's) with two-strikes in his last two starts -- tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 -- 91st Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .118 (2-for-17) against Tyler Phillips in his last two starts -- tied for 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 -- 90th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 26th	CLE	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8	CLE -190
Jul 24th	@MIN	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8	MIN -132
Jul 23rd	@MIN	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 8	PHI -148
Jul 22nd	@MIN	L 2-7	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -115
Jul 21st	@PIT	W 6-0	-1.5 W	U 9	PHI -122

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Spencer Turnbull
P
Turnbull is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	86	3.2	5	6
RN.Sandlin, P	10	0.1	1	1
RP.Avila, P	20	1	2	1
LT.Herrin, P	13	1	0	0
RP.Strzelecki, P	28	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	1-3	0	0	0
1T.Freeman, CF	0-1	0	0	0
2A.Martinez, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Martinez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
3B.Rocchio, SS	0-0	0	0	0
4D.Fry, DH	1-3	0	0	0
5D.Schneemann, SS	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Schneemann, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Noel, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8W.Brennan, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8W.Brennan, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Hedges, C	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Phillips, P		105	9	4	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	3-5	1	1	3
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
4A.Bohm, 3B	1-2	0	0	0
4E.Sosa, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	0-4	1	0	0
6B.Marsh, CF	2-4	1	1	2
6B.Marsh, RF	2-4	1	1	2
7N.Castellanos, RF	2-3	2	1	1
7J.Rojas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7J.Rojas, CF	0-1	0	0	0
8B.Stott, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
9A.Hays, LF	1-4	1	0	0