Mariners vs. Athletics Odds & Betting Predictions - September 4, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Luis Castillo, the Seattle ace whose season has been one of two pitchers: one whose surface stats-government 3.65 ERA-point to dependability, another whose underlying metrics told a different tale. A 3.98 FIP for Castillo and an even higher xFIP of 4.12 would suggest his real ERA may well not be that sustainable, that he has been at the very least somewhat fortunate in keeping his current numbers where they are. The HR/FB ratio of 14.2 percent is just a shade above league average, indicating that a fairly large percentage of the fly balls he allows have turned into home runs. That fact in itself becomes that much more concerning when his hard contact rate came in at 39.1 percent, well over league average. This means that when hitters do connect with Castillo's pitches, they are often hitting them hard for more extra-base hits and home run potential. As a plus, Castillo's BABIP of .278 is below the league average, which indicates he has been lucky with balls in play, bound for some regression to the mean. With Oakland coming off that come-from-behind win and boasting a power threat in Shea Langeliers, who homered twice and sent in the walk-off in last night's affair. The Mariners, who have seen Castillo's xFIP and hard contact rates tick up in the second half, may need to prepare for another difficult start. The young right-hander Castillo faces Oakland's J.T. Ginn, who is making just his second major league start. Ginn struggled in his major league debut - he allowed four earned runs over five innings to the erratic Cincinnati sluggers. A 4.76 SIERA and an 8.4% K-BB% are ominous warning signs that he's well away from being sharpened at this level. Those numbers indicate Ginn struggles to put hitters away while allowing too much traffic on the bases-a dangerous combination against a Mariners team that, while offensively scuffling, is still capable of catching a young pitcher making mistakes. Ginn's xSLG of .442, combined with a barrel rate of 9.1%, demonstrate that hitters are squaring up fairly well against him, something that ordinarily would translate to extra-base hits or a homer. His sinker-heavy, slider-heavy pitch mix-coming in at 53.5% and 27.6%, respectively-might simply not be good enough to stymie Seattle's lineup, mainly if they remain patient and can wait for a pitch caught in the zone. The Mariners will probably look to jump on Ginn early-particularly with their playoff hopes dwindling and every game taking on new importance-led by power-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh, who notched his 28th home run in the series opener. In fact, both bullpens have serious concerns, especially in holding leads or keeping games close late. Seattle's bullpen has been inconsistent, posting an xFIP of 4.26 and a high leverage ERA of 5.12-not exactly the type of outings you would think they would have when it counted most. With a super high LOB% of 71.8%, their inability to strand runners has them coming in under league average and could very easily make way for a deluge of runs in the latter innings. Plus, the Mariners' pen has been fighting some fatigue, as evidenced by Andrés Muñoz's 13 hits and 11 earned runs over his last 15.2 innings of work, and Tayler Saucedo posting a WHIP of 1.48 - showing he can allow a bunch of base runners. On the other hand, the Oakland bullpen comes in with an xFIP of 4.58 and an ERA in high-leverage situations of 5.46. They also have had comparable problems stranding runners, with a LOB% of 68.9%, as the Athletics' bullpen has been filled with inconsistent relievers, one of which being Garrett Holman, who has struggled to the tune of a 7.20 ERA over his last 7 innings and a WHIP of 2.60, indicating he's putting far too many men on base. In the majority of such shaky bullpen performances-especially in a high-leverage situation-later in the game, both teams are likely to see more runs cross the plate, hence making the over a very attractive option.