Marlins vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 3, 2024

Marlins at Braves

11:20 pm • BSFL

Miami Marlins

0-0

4 - 3

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Holmes			3.56	2-1
K.Tyler			5.40	0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 0-0	+1.5+105	o9-110	+200
Braves 0-2	-1.5-125	u9-110	-245

Saturday 11:20 p.m.

August 03, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

ATL -1.5 (Live)-130

Under 9-110

G.Holmes o4.5 Ks-116

1.16u

I’ll take a stab here - Holmes is coming off a 5 IP (77 pitch) appearance where he rung up 8 Brewers. 29 Ks in 28.1 MLB IP, and 51 Ks in 41 AAA innings. Has swing and miss stuff (19 whiffs total the L2 appearances) and a 29.6% CSW% (for context, that’s in Grayson Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan territory). He now gets a Marlins squad with a 27% K% in away games vs righties the L30 days (356 PA), and have allowed 17/L21 righties making full starts over this line. 7 plus targets in the lineup today (everyone except Edwards and Fortes).

G.Holmes o4.5 Ks+108

Projection lands at 5.74 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -114 giving us value at this number

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Marlins RPs have a strikeout rate of 35% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB. Braves left-handed hitters have struck out 27% against RHP over the last two weeks -- tied for third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season -- tied for lowest in MLB. The Marlins have scored in at least three different innings in just 36% of their games this season -- third lowest in MLB.

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PRO Projections Huge Over/Under Edge Tonight
Action AI•
Aug 3, 2024 UTC

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 2nd	MIA	W 6-3	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -258
Aug 1st	MIA	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	ATL -218
Jul 31st	@MIL	W 6-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	ATL -120
Jul 31st	@MIL	W 5-1	-	U 8.5	ATL -108
Jul 30th	@MIL	L 3-8	-1.5 L	O 8	MIL +100

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Tyler, P	73	2.2	2	3
RJ.Tinoco, P	14	1.1	2	0
RD.Cronin, P	34	2	2	0
RA.Bender, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Nardi, P	13	1	2	0
RC.Faucher, P	18	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	1-3	1	0	0
2J.Burger, 1B	2-5	1	1	2
3J.Sanchez, RF	3-5	0	0	2
4J.Bride, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5K.Stowers, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6E.Rivera, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, CF	1-2	0	0	0
7C.Pache, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7C.Pache, CF	0-1	0	0	0
8V.Brujan, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	2-4	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Holmes, P	70	4.2	4	3
LD.Lee, P	13	1.1	2	0
RP.Johnson, P	23	1	0	1
RJ.Chavez, P	45	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Soler, RF	0-4	1	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	1	0	1
5O.Arcia, SS	0-2	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-3	0	0	0
7E.Rosario, LF	1-4	0	0	1
8J.Kelenic, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9W.Merrifield, 2B	1-4	0	0	0