Marlins vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 3, 2024

Marlins at Braves

11:20 pm • BSFL

Miami Marlins

1-0

4 - 3

Atlanta Braves

0-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Holmes			3.56	2-1
K.Tyler			5.40	0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 1-0	+1.5+105	o9-110	+200
Braves 0-1	-1.5-125	u9-110	-245

Saturday 11:20 p.m.

August 03, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

ATL -1.5 (Live)-130

Under 9-110

G.Holmes o4.5 Ks-116

1.16u

I’ll take a stab here - Holmes is coming off a 5 IP (77 pitch) appearance where he rung up 8 Brewers. 29 Ks in 28.1 MLB IP, and 51 Ks in 41 AAA innings. Has swing and miss stuff (19 whiffs total the L2 appearances) and a 29.6% CSW% (for context, that’s in Grayson Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan territory). He now gets a Marlins squad with a 27% K% in away games vs righties the L30 days (356 PA), and have allowed 17/L21 righties making full starts over this line. 7 plus targets in the lineup today (everyone except Edwards and Fortes).

Under 9-107

0.93u

G.Holmes o4.5 Ks+108

Projection lands at 5.74 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -114 giving us value at this number

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Marlins RPs have a strikeout rate of 35% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB. Braves left-handed hitters have struck out 27% against RHP over the last two weeks -- tied for third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season -- tied for lowest in MLB. The Marlins have scored in at least three different innings in just 36% of their games this season -- third lowest in MLB.

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PRO Projections Huge Over/Under Edge Tonight
Action AI•
Aug 3, 2024 UTC

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 2nd	MIA	W 6-3	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -258
Aug 1st	MIA	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	ATL -218
Jul 31st	@MIL	W 6-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	ATL -120
Jul 31st	@MIL	W 5-1	-	U 8.5	ATL -108
Jul 30th	@MIL	L 3-8	-1.5 L	O 8	MIL +100

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Tyler, P	73	2.2	2	3
RJ.Tinoco, P	14	1.1	2	0
RD.Cronin, P	34	2	2	0
RA.Bender, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Nardi, P	13	1	2	0
RC.Faucher, P	18	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	1-3	1	0	0
2J.Burger, 1B	2-5	1	1	2
3J.Sanchez, RF	3-5	0	0	2
4J.Bride, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5K.Stowers, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6E.Rivera, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, CF	1-2	0	0	0
7C.Pache, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7C.Pache, CF	0-1	0	0	0
8V.Brujan, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	2-4	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Holmes, P	70	4.2	4	3
LD.Lee, P	13	1.1	2	0
RP.Johnson, P	23	1	0	1
RJ.Chavez, P	45	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Soler, RF	0-4	1	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	1	0	1
5O.Arcia, SS	0-2	0	0	0
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-3	0	0	0
7E.Rosario, LF	1-4	0	0	1
8J.Kelenic, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9W.Merrifield, 2B	1-4	0	0	0