Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 17, 2023

Marlins at Cardinals

11:45 pm • BSMW

Miami Marlins

0-0

4 - 6

St. Louis Cardinals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Mikolas			4.78	9-13
J.Luzardo			3.63	10-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 0-0	-1.5+152	o8.5+100	-112
Cardinals 0-0	+1.5-175	u8.5-120	-105

Monday 11:45 p.m.

July 17, 2023

Busch StadiumSt. Louis

MIA -110

0.55u

Go Fish

W.Contreras o1.5 Total Bases+135

0.5u

W.Contreras o0.5 HR+450

0.1u

MIA +100

Available at FanDuel. It's a tough matchup for Jesus Luzardo with so many lefty-mashers, but he looks up to the test. In 19 starts, Luzardo has a 29.1% strikeout rate with a 3.38 SIERA. He isn't great with batted-ball suppression, but I wouldn't call it a weakness, either. He's facing Miles Mikolas, who is durable enough to bounce back after a rain-shortened outing Friday, but he projects to let up a ton of balls in play here. The Marlins' offense is gross, but the Cardinals' has also underperformed this year, especially against lefties. They may be due for regression, but the sample is pretty large at this point, and their wRC+ is still 106. I have the Marlins' win odds at 53.5%, up from 50.0% implied.

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The Cardinals are 9-6 (.600) after a win as underdogs this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Nick Fortes has an OPS of just .541 this season -- sixth worst among hitters with at least 136 total PA's-- first Percentile. Felix Bautista has allowed an OPS of just .433 (171 PAs) this season -- third best among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Paul Goldschmidt is batting .299 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 11th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Josiah Gray has thrown a breaking pitch 51% of the time this season -- eighth highest among qualified SPs-- 90th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (53/332) against Miles Mikolas this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .244 (55-for-225) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cardinals are 38-43 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Cardinals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	80-82	42-39	38-43	28-49	51-33
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cardinals	74-83-5	37-42-2	37-41-3	39-38	34-45-5
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	83-79	44-37	39-42	39-38	43-41
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 16th	WSH	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 9	STL -177
Jul 15th	WSH	W 9-6	-1.5 W	O 9	STL -190
Jul 15th	WSH	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 3.5	WSH +160
Jul 9th	@CWS	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 9.5	STL +108
Jul 8th	@CWS	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 10	STL -145

Sonny Gray
P
Gray is out with arm
Out
Willson Contreras
C
Contreras is out with finger
Out

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P	92	4	2	2
RJ.Chargois, P	21	1	1	0
RD.Floro, P	30	1	1	3
RB.Hoeing, P	10	1	1	0
LA.Puk, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-5	0	0	1
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3G.Cooper, 1B	2-5	0	0	1
3G.Hampson, PR	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, RF	1-4	1	1	1
5B.De La Cruz, LF	2-4	1	1	1
6J. Segura, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Wendle, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8N.Fortes, C	1-4	1	0	0
9D.Myers, CF	3-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Mikolas, P	92	6	3	3
RR. Tepera, P	18	0.2	0	1
RG.Gallegos, P	17	1.1	1	0
RJ.Hicks, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1D.Carlson, CF	2-4	3	1
2P.Goldschmidt, 1B	2-5	2	0
3N.Arenado, 3B	2-3	0	4
4W.Contreras, DH	0-3	0	0
5J.Walker, RF	2-4	0	1
6P.DeJong, SS	1-3	0	0
7I.Herrera, C	0-4	0	0
8L.Nootbaar, LF	1-4	0	0
9J.Fermin, 2B	0-2	0	0
9N.Gorman, PH	1-1	1	0
9N.Gorman, 2B	1-1	1	0