Marlins vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - May 27, 2024

Marlins at Padres

10:40 pm • SDPA

Miami Marlins

7-11

1 - 2

San Diego Padres

8-15

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.King			2.95	13-9
T.Rogers			7.11	0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 7-11	+1.5	+1.5-125	o7.5-103	+170
Padres 8-15	u7.5	-1.5+105	u7.5-118	-205

Monday 10:40 p.m.

May 27, 2024

PETCO ParkSan Diego

M.King u6.5 Ks-150

M.Machado o1.5 Total Bases+141

Under 7.5-119

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

Featured Insight
The Marlins have allowed just 1.8 runs per game on the road over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB (5 games). The Padres have scored just 2.0 runs per game at home over the last two weeks -- second lowest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
The Padres have scored 5.2 runs per game on the road this season -- second highest in MLB (27 games). The Marlins have allowed 5.9 runs per game at home this season -- second highest in MLB (29 games).

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MLB NRFI Picks And Model Predictions for Monday
Billy Ward•
May 27, 2024 UTC

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The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.

56% of fastball strikeouts for Jake Cronenworth are located out of the zone this season -- tied for seventh highest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. 60% of Trevor Rogers fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Nick Fortes has an OPS of just .438 this season -- sixth worst among hitters with at least 75 total PA's-- first Percentile. Jeremiah Estrada has allowed an OPS of just .320 (55 PAs) this season -- best among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (31 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on inside fastballs this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 -- first Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .469 (81 PA's) this month (4 games) -- tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .301 -- first Percentile.

Michael King has walked 13 of 133 right-handed batters (10%) this season -- 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- ninth Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .524 (42 PA's) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .328 -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 26th	NYY	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 8	SD +112
May 26th	NYY	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYY -124
May 25th	NYY	L 0-8	+1.5 L	O 7	NYY +101
May 23rd	@CIN	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 9.5	SD -113
May 22nd	@CIN	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 9.5	SD -125

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Rogers, P	90	5.1	3	1
RD.Cronin, P	11	0.2	1	0
LA.Puk, P	18	0.2	0	0
RA.Bender, P	15	0.1	0	0
RB.Smith, P	5	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	2-4	1	1	1
2B.De La Cruz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Bell, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6N.Gordon, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6D.Myers, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7T.Anderson, SS	0-2	0	0	0
8O.Lopez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9C.Bethancourt, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.King, P	89	5	7	1
LA.Morejon, P	30	2	1	0
LY.Matsui, P	18	1	2	0
RR.Suarez, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	1-4	0	0	0
3J.Profar, LF	1-3	0	0	0
3J.Azocar, LF	0-0	0	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-3	0	0	1
6D.Solano, DH	1-2	1	1	1
6D.Peralta, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6D.Peralta, DH	0-1	0	0	0
7L.Campusano, C	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Merrill, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9H.Kim, SS	1-4	1	0	0