Mets vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2024
Mets at Braves
5:10 pm • ESPN2Starting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
S.Schwellenbach | 3.35 | 8-7 | ||
T.Megill | 4.04 | 4-5 |
Mets at Braves Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mets 7-6 | +1.5 | +1.5-175 | o7.5-118 | +124 |
Braves 0-2 | u8 | -1.5+145 | u7.5-103 | -148 |
Monday 5:10 p.m.
September 30, 2024Truist ParkAtlanta
Mets vs. Braves Expert Picks
Boomer Betz
44d ago
Last 30d: 159-159-1 (+21.1u)
NYM +120 (Live)
1.11u
At work
Ryan Sura
45d ago
Last 30d: 100-108-5 (-12.1u)
NYM +0.5 (F5)-114
1.14u
PvB Bets
45d ago
Last 30d: 19-20-1 (-3.2u)
ATL -145
1u
Atlanta Braves Game 1 ML (-145 @ MGM)
I don't bet game outcomes often, but I really like this spot for the Braves at this price. Now both of these teams need to win 1 game from the doubleheader to make the playoffs and bounce ARI out. In game 1 we get Schwellenbach vs Megill. Here are the numbers between the two:
Schwellenbach: 3.47 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 25.7% K-rate
Megill: 3.98 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 26.7% K-rate
So pretty similar numbers, except Megill puts more guys on base, which is a big deal against a good offense with pop.
We've seen both of these guys face these lineups before. Here are Schwellenbach's games vs NYM:
9/24: 7 IP, 3 HA, 1 ER, 4 K's
7/27: 7 IP, 2 HA, 0 ER, 11 K's
Two really good outings from him this season against this team! Megill hasn't had the same type of success between this season and last:
7/27: 6 IP, 5 HA, 4 ER, 4 K's
8/22/23: 4.2 IP, 8 HA, 3 ER, 5 K's
8/11/23: 5.1 IP, 9 HA, 5 ER, 3 K's
5/1/23: 5.2 IP, 4 HA, 3 ER, 4 K's
This ATL team hits Megill well. From a motivation standpoint, I like this first game for ATL a lot too. If they can win game 1, they can save NY Cy Young Ace Chris Sale for Game 1 of the WC series, which is huge. Meanwhile, NYM is saving their better starter for Game 2 (Severino).
If the Braves win game 1, you have to look at NYM in game two, but I'm sure the books will react accordingly as well. So let's get in on a nice price for game 1!
Sean Zerillo
45d ago
Last 30d: 48-68-3 (-7.7u)
Under 8-115
0.58u
Updated Projection: 7.26 after umpire assignment & lineups. Bet to -118 or 7.5 (+100)
💰🦡 Jake
45d ago
Last 30d: 104-101-4 (-7.0u)
ATL -1.5+135
1u
Lines at Lunch
45d ago
Last 30d: 51-40-1 (+9.2u)
NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120
1.2u
Sandy
Sandy Plashkes
45d ago
Last 30d: 117-112-0 (+10.2u)
NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120
1.2u
Lines at Lunch
45d ago
Last 30d: 51-40-1 (+9.2u)
Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130
1u
Avery
Moneyline Hacks
45d ago
Last 30d: 63-66-3 (+21.5u)
NYM +124
1.24u
All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW
Lines at Lunch
45d ago
Last 30d: 51-40-1 (+9.2u)
ATL -0.5 (F5)-110
1.3u
Johnny
Gamblers Dream
45d ago
Last 30d: 36-38-1 (+21.9u)
NYM -110
1u
PRO Insights
Mets
NYM Insights
- Featured InsightMets RPs have a strikeout rate of 31% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 40% against LHP over the last week -- second highest in MLB.
TRY FOR FREE
Braves
ATL Insights
- Featured InsightThe Braves have allowed just 1.5 runs per game over the last week -- lowest in MLB (4 games). The Mets have scored just 1.8 runs per game over the last week -- second lowest in MLB (4 games).
TRY FOR FREE
Mets vs. Braves Previews & Analysis
Mets vs. Braves Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Mets vs. Braves Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Braves vs. Mets Injury Updates
Braves Injuries
- Chris SaleP
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
- Ronald AcunaOF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
- Austin RileyIF
Riley is out with hand
Out
- Spencer StriderP
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Mets Injuries
- Paul BlackburnP
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
- Ronny MauricioIF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
- Christian ScottP
Scott is out with elbow
Out
Mets vs. Braves Box Score
Mets Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RT.Megill, P | 100 | 5.2 | 8 | 3 | |
RH.Brazoban, P | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | |
RA.Ottavino, P | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RP.Maton, P | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 | |
RE.Diaz, P | 40 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1F.Lindor, SS | 2-5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
2J.Iglesias, 2B | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
2J.Iglesias, 3B | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3M.Vientos, 3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
3E.Alvarez, 2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4B.Nimmo, LF | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
5P.Alonso, 1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6J.Martinez, DH | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6L.Acuna, PR | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6L.Acuna, DH | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7T.Taylor, RF | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7T.Taylor, CF | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8F.Alvarez, C | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
9H.Bader, CF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9S.Marte, PH | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
9S.Marte, RF | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Braves Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RS.Schwellenbach, P | 94 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |
RJ.Jimenez, P | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
RR.Iglesias, P | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 | |
LA.Bummer, P | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | |
RP.Johnson, P | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1M.Harris, CF | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
2O.Albies, 2B | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
3M.Ozuna, DH | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4M.Olson, 1B | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5J.Soler, RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5E.White, RF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
6R.Laureano, LF | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7T.d'Arnaud, C | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
8G.Urshela, 3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8G.Urshela, SS | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9O.Arcia, SS | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.Kelenic, PH | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
9W.Merrifield, PR | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
9W.Merrifield, 3B | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Mets vs. Braves Odds Comparison
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Mets at Braves Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Mets 7-6 | o3.5-115 | u3.5-115 |
Braves 0-2 | o4.5+114 | u4.5-145 |