Mets vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 21, 2024

Mets at Guardians

10:10 pm • SNY

New York Mets

7-6

6 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
X.Curry			5.84	0-2
A.Houser			5.84	1-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	+1.5-198	o9-120	+102
Guardians 4-6	u0.5	-1.5+164	u9+100	-121

Tuesday 10:10 p.m.

May 21, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

F.Lindor o1.5 Total Bases-110

1.5u

NYM +108

B.Nimmo o1.5 Total Bases+115

0.5u

Least lucky hitter in all of baseball. Gulps.

F.Lindor o1.5 Total Bases-103

0.5u

Ice cold so tail at your own risk Carrasco: 40% extra base hit rate allowed to lefties. Minimal strikeouts and ranks in bottom 21% of all pitchers in xBA (.271) & avg. exit velocity. Has allowed 8 HRs in L5 starts

Over 9.5+110

1.1u

J.Martinez o1.5 Total Bases+100

Projection leans to the over

A.Houser u3.5 Ks-170

Projection leans to the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -252

C.Carrasco u16.5 Outs-110

1.1u

Under in 6/9 starts - frequently with a short hook the third time through the order (1.051 OPS allowed). Struggles more vs lefties, and should see 5 of them today. Guardians bullpen is rested with an off day coming on Thursday. Also, we have some fantastic hitting conditions in Cleveland today.

Over 9-115

0.5u

Bet to -120 or 9.5 (-101)

CLE -112

0.5u

Bet to -115

Under 9-105

0.53u

Featured Insight
Mets hitters have a groundball rate of 51% over the last week -- tied for highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Guardians over the last week -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Guardians have struck out just 15% over the last week -- lowest in MLB. Mets have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last week -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Mets are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Guardians are 13-75 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

Brett Baty has an OPS of just .602 since last season -- 15th worst among hitters with at least 309 total PA's-- fourth Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .556 (389 PAs) since last season -- 13th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Brett Baty has an OPS of just .600 since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among hitters with at least 552 total PA's-- third Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .502 (660 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has walked 11 of 81 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- sixth Percentile.

Adrian Houser has a strikeout rate of just 11% (17 SO in 157 PAs) this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 3% (1/31) against Adrian Houser over the last 14 days -- lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 27% -- first Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 20th	NYM	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CLE -125
May 19th	MIN	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CLE -116
May 18th	MIN	W 11-4	+1.5 W	O 7	CLE +102
May 17th	MIN	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CLE -130
May 16th	@TEX	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	TEX +160

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Houser, P	72	5	4	6
LJ.Diekman, P	22	0.2	2	1
RJ.Lopez, P	16	1.1	1	0
RS.Reid-Foley, P	18	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	0	0	1
2P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, CF	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Martinez, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Stewart, PH	0-0	1	0	0
5D.Stewart, LF	0-0	1	0	0
6S.Marte, RF	1-4	1	1	2
7M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
8J.McNeil, 2B	2-4	2	1	2
9T.Nido, C	1-3	0	0	0
9H.Bader, PH	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RX.Curry, P	66	4.1	2	2
RN.Sandlin, P	13	0.2	2	0
LS.Hentges, P	16	1	1	2
RH.Gaddis, P	13	1	1	0
RS.Barlow, P	19	0.2	1	2
LT.Herrin, P	4	0.1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Freeman, CF	1-3	2	0	1
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	2-4	1	1	3
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5W.Brennan, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6K.Manzardo, DH	1-2	0	0	0
6D.Fry, PH	1-1	1	1	2
6D.Fry, DH	1-1	1	1	2
7J.Rodriguez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	0-2	1	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	1-2	1	0	1