Mets vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - March 31, 2023

Mets at Marlins

10:40 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

7-9

1 - 2

Miami Marlins

6-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			3.63	10-9
D.Peterson			5.03	3-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-9	-1.5+150	o8-105	-110
Marlins 6-8	+1.5-180	u8-115	-110

Friday 10:40 p.m.

March 31, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

MIA +102

0.51u

Under 8-117

Total is up to 8, I’ll double down

MIA -105

0.95u

D.Peterson o5.5 Ks+110

0.5u

MIA -105

0.95u

Under 3.5 (F5)-105

0.95u

MIA -105

MIA +105

0.26u

Sharp Plays // Resorts World

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+525

1.05u

Bet at Bet365. Fell short vs Sandy yesterday but Luzardo hasn’t fared well vs Mets. Might get chased early. Only HR bet I love for today.

MIA -101

Under 7.5-110

Under 7.5+100

0.5u

MIA -105

MIA -106

Under 8-120

Pod

Under 8-110

0.5u

Bet to 7.5 (+100)

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The Marlins were just 33-65 (.337) when underdogs in 2022 -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Mets are 152-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Marlins are just 112-10 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Pete Alonso hit 14 home runs on breaking pitches last season -- tied for fourth most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Jesus Luzardo threw his curveball 30% of the time last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB-- 91st Percentile.

Francisco Lindor hit 8 home runs on pitches 95 mph or greater last season -- tied for eighth most in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.1 MPH last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo's pitches (285/534) with two-strikes in 2022 -- 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% -- third Percentile.

David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% -- 0 Percentile.

David Peterson had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (238/455) in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 55% (352/642) when behind in the count in 2022 -- 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- second Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 30th	NYM	L 3-5	+1.5 L	O 7	NYM +108
Mar 26th	@NYM	L 3-3	-	-	-
Mar 26th	WSH	W 2-2	-	-	-
Mar 25th	@STL	L 2-3	-	-	STL +104
Mar 24th	HOU	W 3-2	-	-	MIA -142

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	84	5	5	1
RT. Hunter, P	19	2	0	0
RJ.Curtiss, P	12	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-3	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	2-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-2	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
5M.Canha, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7E. Escobar, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8T.Pham, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8L.Guillorme, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8L.Guillorme, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Nido, C	0-2	0	0	0
9D.Vogelbach, PH	1-1	0	0	0
9T. Locastro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P	91	5.2	5	0
RJ.Chargois, P	14	1.1	1	0
RD.Floro, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	10	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2J. Segura, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3G.Cooper, DH	3-4	0	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
5J.Soler, RF	2-4	1	1	1
5B.De La Cruz, LF	0-0	0	0	0
6A.Garcia, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6A.Garcia, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7Y.Gurriel, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
8N.Fortes, C	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Berti, SS	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Wendle, SS	0-0	0	0	0