Padres vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 6, 2024

Padres at Cubs

11:40 pm • SDPA

San Diego Padres

4-3

6 - 3

Chicago Cubs

0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 4-3	-1.5+165	o7.5+100	-105
Cubs 0-0	+1.5-198	u7.5-120	-115

Monday 11:40 p.m.

May 06, 2024

Wrigley FieldChicago

SD +100

0.5u

Under 7.5-120

1.6u

J.Steele u4.5 Ks-130

0.38u

#tailing @The_Oddsmaker

J.Steele u4.5 Ks-130

0.77u

@The_Oddsmaker

J.Steele u4.5 Ks-130

SD +100

1.5u

Y.Darvish u5.5 Ks-132

0.76u

Ballpark pal projects 4.8 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -156 giving value to this number

SD +108

1.08u

Featured Insight
Padres hitters have an OPS of .797 over the last week -- third best in MLB. Cubs RPs have allowed an OPS of .820 (102 PAs) over the last week -- second worst in MLB.

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The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.

Ha-seong Kim is batting .346 on breaking pitches from LHP since the 2022 season -- sixth best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Justin Steele has thrown his slider 34% of the time since the 2022 season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 142 total SL-- 90th Percentile.

Luis Arraez has a miss rate of only 5% on inside fastballs since last season -- second best in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Justin Steele has located his fastball inside 43% of the time since last season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP-- 95th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Yu Darvish's elevated fastball this season -- tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .211 -- first Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (219/472) when behind in the count since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,415/3,286) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	MIL	W 5-0	+1.5 W	U 6.5	CHC +120
May 4th	MIL	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	CHC -135
May 3rd	MIL	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 7.5	MIL -119
May 2nd	@NYM	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 8	NYM -105
May 1st	@NYM	W 1-0	-1.5 L	U 7.5	CHC -121

Ben Brown
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Brown is out with neck
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	83	5	5	0
LY.Matsui, P	16	0.2	1	2
RE.De Los Santos, P	24	1	1	1
LW.Peralta, P	12	0.1	0	0
RJ.Estrada, P	16	0.1	1	0
RR.Suarez, P	20	1.2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, DH	0-4	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	1-5	1	0
3J.Cronenworth, 1B	2-4	1	0
4J.Profar, LF	1-4	1	2
4J.Azocar, LF	0-0	0	0
5X.Bogaerts, 2B	2-4	1	0
6D.Solano, 3B	2-3	1	1
6T.Wade, PR	0-0	0	0
6T.Wade, 3B	0-0	0	0
7H.Kim, SS	0-3	1	0
8L.Campusano, C	2-4	0	3
9J.Merrill, CF	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Steele, P	68	4.2	2	0
LR.Lovelady, P	14	0.1	0	3
RD.Palencia, P	23	1	1	3
RC.Brewer, P	24	2	2	0
RA.Alzolay, P	14	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
2M.Tauchman, RF	2-4	1	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4C.Morel, DH	1-4	1	1	2
5M.Busch, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5P.Wisdom, PH	0-0	0	0	0
5P.Wisdom, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
6D.Swanson, SS	0-2	0	0	0
7N.Madrigal, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9Y.Gomes, C	1-4	1	1	1