Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2024

Padres at Diamondbacks

8:10 pm • SDPA

San Diego Padres

15-5

4 - 11

Arizona Diamondbacks

12-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Nelson			4.24	10-6
M.Waldron			4.91	7-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 15-5	-1.5+143	o8.5-118	-113
Diamondbacks 12-8	+1.5-166	u8.5-102	-105

Sunday 8:10 p.m.

May 05, 2024

Chase FieldPhoenix

F.Tatis o1 Total Bases (Live)-110

SD -105

0.53u

R.Nelson u3.5 Ks-156

0.64u

Ballpark pal projects just 2.9 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -193 giving value to this number

Under 9.5-106

0.53u

Bet to 9 (-106)

ARI -113

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -120

Featured Insight
Padres RPs have a strikeout rate of 34% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- second highest in MLB. Diamondbacks left-handed hitters have struck out 33% against RHP over the last week -- tied for second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Diamondbacks have scored 3.4 runs per game in the first five innings this season -- second highest in MLB (33 games). The Padres have allowed 2.9 runs per game in the first five innings this season -- fourth highest in MLB (35 games).

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The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.

Luis Arraez has struck out in just 6% of PA's since last season -- lowest in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 16% since last season -- 14th lowest among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP-- seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (23/177) against Matt Waldron in non-two strike counts this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- first Percentile.

Matt Waldron has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days -- tied for lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% -- third Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Diamondbacks' 10 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	11-9	5-5	6-4	9-8	2-1
Padres	14-6	12-1	2-5	9-3	5-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	9-8-3	2-5-3	7-3	8-6-3	1-2
Padres	9-10-1	4-8-1	5-2	5-6-1	4-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	12-8	6-4	6-4	10-7	2-1
Padres	15-5	12-1	3-4	11-1	4-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	SD	L 1-13	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -120
May 4th	SD	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	SD -102
May 2nd	LAD	L 0-8	+1.5 L	U 8.5	LAD +120
May 1st	LAD	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 9.5	ARI -105
Apr 30th	LAD	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 10	LAD +120

Jordan Montgomery
P
Montgomery is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Blaze Alexander
IF
Alexander is out with oblique
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Yu Darvish
P
Darvish is out with elbow
Out
Matt Waldron
P
Waldron is out with hamstring
Out
Jackson Merrill
OF
Merrill is out with hamstring
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Waldron, P	65	3	2	7
RJ.Brito, P	42	3	0	3
RS.Kolek, P	8	1	1	0
LW.Peralta, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	2-5	1	0	0
3J.Cronenworth, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Profar, LF	1-4	0	0	0
6X.Bogaerts, DH	1-4	1	0	0
7J.Merrill, CF	2-4	1	1	2
8H.Kim, SS	1-3	1	0	0
9K.Higashioka, C	2-4	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Nelson, P	99	5	3	4
RJ.Martinez, P	18	1	0	0
LJ.Mantiply, P	10	1	1	0
RR.Thompson, P	17	1	1	0
RK.Ginkel, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.McCarthy, LF	3-4	3	0	2
1R.Grichuk, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1R.Grichuk, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2K.Marte, 2B	1-4	1	1	2
2B.Alexander, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
3P.Smith, RF	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	2-3	2	0	2
5J.Pederson, DH	1-4	1	1	2
6E.Suarez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Carroll, CF	2-4	1	0	2
8K.Newman, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9T.Barnhart, C	2-3	2	0	1