Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2024

Padres at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • ARID

San Diego Padres

93-69

5 - 3

Arizona Diamondbacks

89-73

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			4.03	5-1
Y.Darvish			3.31	7-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 93-69	-1.5	+1.5-185	o9-105	+114
Diamondbacks 89-73	u9	-1.5+154	u9-109	-135

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

September 28, 2024

Chase FieldPhoenix

SD +110

1.1u

F.Tatis o1.5 Total Bases-110

1.1u

M.Kelly u17.5 Outs-120

0.83u

Under 9-115

0.87u

Signal of the Day

SD +118 (F5)

0.3u

Small to +100

SD +115

0.6u

Buying off after switching to Darvish; pass if you didn't bet AZ

Under 9-115

0.5u

Bet to 8.5 (-108)

ARI -125

0.63u

Update: Pass

Featured Insight
The Padres have scored 1.5 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- highest in MLB (91 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 1.5 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- fourth highest in MLB (89 games).

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Featured Insight
Diamondbacks RPs have a strikeout rate of 33% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- third highest in MLB. Padres right-handed hitters have struck out 47% against LHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.

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The Padres are 90-66 (.577) this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

73% of non-fastball strikeouts for Luis Arraez are located out of the zone since last season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 81% of Merrill Kelly non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Eugenio Suarez had an OPS of just .434 with two strikes in the 2022 season -- sixth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Yu Darvish allowed an OPS of just .380 (436 PAs) with two strikes in the 2022 season -- ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 26th	SF	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 9	ARI -270
Sep 25th	SF	L 0-11	-1.5 L	O 8	SF -161
Sep 24th	SF	L 3-6	-1.5 L	U 9	SF -191
Sep 22nd	@MIL	L 9-10	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +115
Sep 21st	@MIL	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 8	ARI -110

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	80	5.1	4	3
RJ.Estrada, P	14	0.2	1	0
LA.Morejon, P	16	0.2	0	0
RJ.Adam, P	17	1.1	1	0
RR.Suarez, P	22	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	3-5	1	1
2F.Tatis, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Profar, LF	0-4	1	0
3B.Lockridge, LF	0-0	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-5	1	1
5J.Merrill, CF	2-4	0	1
6X.Bogaerts, SS	0-4	1	0
7J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-3	0	0
8D.Peralta, DH	2-3	0	1
8D.Solano, PH	0-0	0	0
8D.Solano, DH	0-0	0	0
9K.Higashioka, C	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	99	5.2	8	5
LJ.Mantiply, P	3	0.1	0	0
RR.Thompson, P	6	1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	21	1	0	0
RK.Ginkel, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, CF	1-3	1	1	1
2K.Marte, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
3J.Pederson, DH	0-2	0	0	0
3R.Grichuk, PH	1-1	0	0	0
3R.Grichuk, DH	1-1	0	0	0
3A.Thomas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5L.Gurriel, LF	1-2	1	0	1
6P.Smith, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7E.Suarez, 3B	2-4	0	0	1
8G.Moreno, C	1-4	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-4	0	0	0