Padres vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 14, 2024

Padres at Dodgers

11:10 pm • ESPN

San Diego Padres

5-14

6 - 3

Los Angeles Dodgers

12-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Paxton			4.09	1-1
Y.Darvish			3.31	7-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 5-14	+1.5-149	o8.5-111	+137
Dodgers 12-8	-1.5+124	u8.5-109	-163

Sunday 11:10 p.m.

April 14, 2024

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

1.5u

SD +175 (Live)

3.5u

F.Freeman o0.5 HR+450

0.42u

Squad ride on Telegram

J.Paxton u4.5 Ks+114

0.57u

Ballpark pal projects 3.76 Ks and +ev with devig odds of -107 giving us value at this number

Under 8.5-110

LAD -130 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -130

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-113

0.57u

S.Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases-112

$56.00

Under 9-110

0.55u

Bet to 8.5 (-107)

Over 9+100

Featured Insight
Padres hitters have an OPS of .762 over the last week -- eighth best in MLB. Dodgers RPs have allowed an OPS of .690 (88 PAs) over the last week -- ninth worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Dodgers have allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since the 2022 season -- tied for second lowest in MLB (213 games). The Padres have scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since the 2022 season -- fourth lowest in MLB (200 games).

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Padres vs. Dodgers: Target The First Five Innings Over/Under
Doug Ziefel•
Apr 14, 2024 UTC
Opening Pitch: Dabbundo's MLB Bets for Sunday
Anthony Dabbundo•
Apr 14, 2024 UTC

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33% of Fernando Tatis Jr. strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs last season -- sixth highest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. 45% of James Paxton's strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs last season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Mookie Betts has an OPS of .947 since the 2022 season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .779 (468 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 14th worst among qualified RPs-- eighth Percentile.

James Paxton has an average spin rate of 1923.0 RPM on curveballs since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 2515.4 -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 71% (12/17) against Yu Darvish with two-strikes this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (10/20) against Yu Darvish when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season -- tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

James Paxton allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (32 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season -- 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 -- third Percentile.

The Dodgers are 50-18 (.735) after a loss since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .490.

The Dodgers are 60-31 (.659) at home since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Padres are just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.

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MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 14th	SD	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 9	LAD -219
Apr 13th	SD	L 7-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -205
Apr 10th	@MIN	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIN -170
Apr 9th	@MIN	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 8	LAD -188
Apr 8th	@MIN	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	LAD -135

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out

Michael Kopech
P
Kopech is questionable with arm
Questionable
Michael Grove
P
Grove is out with shoulder
Out
River Ryan
P
Ryan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	92	5	2	3
RE.De Los Santos, P	12	0.2	0	0
LY.Matsui, P	15	1.1	1	0
LW.Peralta, P	8	1	0	0
RR.Suarez, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Bogaerts, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	1-3	1	0	0
3J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
4M.Machado, DH	2-4	2	1	1
5J.Profar, LF	1-3	1	0	3
5J.Azocar, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5J.Azocar, LF	0-0	0	0	0
6H.Kim, SS	0-1	0	0	0
7L.Campusano, C	0-5	0	0	0
8J.Merrill, CF	3-4	0	0	1
9E.Rosario, 3B	1-2	0	0	0
9T.Wade, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Wade, 3B	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	95	5	1	3
RR.Brasier, P	12	1	0	0
RJ.Feyereisen, P	20	0.1	0	3
LA.Vesia, P	21	1.2	2	0
LN.Ramirez, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2S.Ohtani, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3F.Freeman, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
4W.Smith, C	2-3	1	0	1
5M.Muncy, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
6T.Hernandez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Outman, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Hernandez, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9G.Lux, 2B	0-3	0	0	0