Padres vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 16, 2024

Padres at Mets

5:40 pm • WPIX

San Diego Padres

17-11

6 - 11

New York Mets

19-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Megill			4.04	4-5
D.Cease			3.47	14-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 17-11	-1.5	-1.5+124	o7-119	-148
Mets 19-9	u7.5	+1.5-149	u7-101	+124

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

June 16, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

SD -1.5+135

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Over 7-120

SD -130

Over 7-120

$50.00

SD -132

$1320.00

T.Megill u17.5 Outs-130

He’s only pitched past the fifth inning in 1 of his 5 starts. Throws a lot of pitches (3.92 pitches per PA), especially vs lefties where his walk rate almost doubles. Padres should have at least 5 lefties in the lineup today, and as a team, they chase at the 9th lowest rate.

NYM +118

0.3u

Small to +113

Under 7.5-108

0.54u

Bet to -116

D.Cease u7.5 Ks-110

Cease under in 8/14. Mets likely will start 4 lefties (Cease worse split - 26.4%). But Mets as a team also a tougher matchup - 19.1% K% the L14 vs righties, 22.5% vs righties at home this season, and only 26% vs power pitchers. Could get sweaty, but I have him at 7.

Over 7.5+100

Featured Insight
The Padres have allowed just 4.1 runs per game on the road since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB (115 games). The Mets have scored just 4.1 runs per game at home since last season -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB (119 games).

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The Mets are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .849.

The Padres are 9-5 (.643) after a road loss this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.

The Padres are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.

The Mets are 5-28 (.152) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .059.

55% of fastball strikeouts for Francisco Lindor are located out of the zone this season -- seventh highest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. 47% of Dylan Cease fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (19/48) this month (2 games) -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (365/678) since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (135/369) against Dylan Cease this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has walked 73 of 709 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- seventh Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 6-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Mets' 13 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	14-14	8-5	6-9	9-12	5-2
Padres	15-13	12-4	3-9	9-6	6-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	9-19	4-9	5-10	9-12	0-7
Padres	10-17-1	4-11-1	6-6	5-9-1	5-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	19-9	12-1	7-8	15-6	4-3
Padres	17-11	12-4	5-7	11-4	6-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 15th	SD	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYM -135
Jun 14th	SD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM -112
Jun 13th	MIA	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	NYM -209
Jun 12th	MIA	W 10-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -160
Jun 11th	MIA	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIA -155

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Yu Darvish
P
Darvish is out with elbow
Out
Matt Waldron
P
Waldron is out with hamstring
Out
Jackson Merrill
OF
Merrill is out with hamstring
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Cease, P	90	3.2	5	7
LY.Matsui, P	25	1.1	1	0
RS.Kolek, P	25	2	2	0
RJ.Estrada, P	27	0.1	1	4
RE.De Los Santos, P	2	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	2-5	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Profar, DH	1-4	2	1
4J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-5	1	0
5M.Machado, 3B	1-3	0	1
5T.Wade, 3B	0-0	0	0
5D.Solano, PH	0-1	1	0
5D.Solano, 3B	0-1	1	0
6J.Merrill, CF	1-3	0	1
7D.Peralta, LF	1-4	1	1
8H.Kim, SS	1-4	0	1
9L.Campusano, C	2-2	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	92	5	5	2
RA.Houser, P	34	2	1	0
LJ.Diekman, P	18	0.1	0	2
RD.Smith, P	14	0.2	1	0
RS.Reid-Foley, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-3	2	1	2
2B.Nimmo, LF	3-5	2	0	1
3J.Martinez, DH	2-3	1	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-5	1	1	5
5S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, RF	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7L.Torrens, C	2-4	2	1	1
7F.Alvarez, C	0-0	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	2-4	2	0	1