Phillies vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - March 30, 2023

Phillies at Rangers

8:05 pm • BSSW

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

7 - 11

Texas Rangers

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.deGrom			2.67	2-0
A.Nola			4.46	12-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	+1.5-197	o6.5-120	+118
Rangers 0-0	-1.5+162	u6.5+100	-139

Thursday 8:05 p.m.

March 30, 2023

Globe Life FieldArlington

TEX +3.5 (Live)-115

i can only be a degen on opening day

PHI +0.5 (F5)-124

M.Semien o0.5 HR+600

0.1u

Bet at Caesars. Betting on 10 players to hit HR for 0.1U each.

TEX -134

0.56u

Keeping units low here because it's the first time using my updated MLB moneyline model. Available at FanDuel. Jacob deGrom isn't fully stretched out, which makes this risky. But the Rangers' bullpen is more fine than hideous, and there are concerns on the other side, too. Aaron Nola struggled in the spring, which could be because he had one of the longer paces in baseball last year and now has to adjust to the pitch clock. I've got the Rangers at 59.3% to win, up from 57.3% implied. I also don't mind over 6.5 at -105 in this game, though I don't have a model to back that one up.

TEX -140 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -155

TEX -120

0.5u

TEX -120

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Rangers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rangers are 33-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rangers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Rangers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	70-91	37-44	33-47	35-56	34-34
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	74-79-8	32-47-2	42-32-6	40-47-4	34-30-4
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	78-84	44-37	33-47	52-39	24-44
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 28th	KC	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8.5	TEX -128
Mar 28th	KC	W 4-4	-1.5 L	U 10	KC -142
Mar 25th	SD	L 3-5	-	-	SD -138
Mar 24th	@CHC	L 3-5	-	-	-
Mar 24th	ATH	W 7-7	-	-	ATH -157

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out

Corey Seager
IF
Seager is out with hip
Out
Tyler Mahle
P
Mahle is out with shoulder
Out
Evan Carter
OF
Carter is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	72	3.2	4	5
LG.Soto, P	19	0	0	3
RC.Brogdon, P	28	1	1	2
LA. Vasquez, P	22	1.1	0	0
RA. Bellatti, P	17	1	2	0
LM.Strahm, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Turner, SS	1-4	1	0	1
2K.Schwarber, DH	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Realmuto, C	3-5	1	0	0
4D.Hall, 1B	0-4	0	0	1
5N.Castellanos, RF	2-5	2	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Bohm, 3B	3-4	2	1	3
8J.Cave, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Marsh, CF	2-4	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.deGrom, P	73	3.2	7	5
LC.Ragans, P	5	0.1	0	0
LB.Burke, P	39	2	3	1
RJ.Hernandez, P	23	2	2	1
RJ.Leclerc, P	21	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	2-5	1	0	0
2C.Seager, SS	1-3	2	0	0
3N.Lowe, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
4A.Garcia, CF	2-4	1	0	2
4A.Garcia, RF	2-4	1	0	2
5J.Jung, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
6J.Heim, C	2-4	2	0	2
7R.Grossman, RF	1-3	1	1	3
7R.Grossman, LF	1-3	1	1	3
8B. Miller, DH	1-4	1	1	2
9J.Smith, LF	0-1	1	0	0
9B.Thompson, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9B.Thompson, CF	0-2	0	0	0