Pirates vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - April 11, 2024

Pirates at Phillies

10:40 pm • MLB Network

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

1 - 5

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Suarez			3.47	12-8
J.Jones			4.14	6-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	+1.5-175	o9-121	+112
Phillies 1-3	-1.5+145	u9+100	-132

Thursday 10:40 p.m.

April 11, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

R.Suárez u5.5 Ks-118

0.5u

Ballpark pal projects 4.65 Ks and +EV bet with devig odds of -144 giving value at this number

PIT +125

1.5u

B.Stott u0.5 Total Bases+142

Fading players in slumps

PIT +125

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.5u

PIT +120

$50.00

PIT +132

0.5u

PIT +126 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +118

Featured Insight
Pirates have struck out just 18% over the last week -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB. Phillies have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last week -- tied for third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Phillies have scored 2.7 runs per game in the first five innings since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth highest in MLB (336 games). The Pirates have allowed 2.8 runs per game in the first five innings since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB (336 games).

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MLB Props: Expert Picks for Thursday
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The Pirates are 39-8 (.830) when they've had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

The Phillies are 23-17 (.575) after a road win since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .493.

Nick Castellanos hit 16 home runs on breaking pitches last season -- tied for fourth most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Ryan Borucki threw a breaking pitch 69% of the time last season -- fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (125/169) this season -- highest among in NL; League Avg: 64% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 10th	@STL	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -140
Apr 9th	@STL	L 0-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	STL -140
Apr 8th	@STL	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8.5	PHI -105
Apr 7th	@WSH	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	WSH -155
Apr 6th	@WSH	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 8	PHI -198

Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	85	6.1	8	3
RC.Holderman, P	9	0.2	0	1
RH.Stratton, P	13	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Joe, 1B	0-3	0	0
1R.Tellez, PH	0-1	0	0
1R.Tellez, 1B	0-1	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	0-2	0	0
4E.Olivares, RF	2-4	1	0
5A.McCutchen, DH	0-4	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	1-4	0	0
7O.Cruz, SS	1-4	0	0
8J.Triolo, 2B	1-4	0	1
9H.Davis, C	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	97	6	8	0
RY.Marte, P	23	1	3	0
RN.Nelson, P	33	2	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	0	0
5A.Bohm, 3B	2-3	1	1	1
6B.Marsh, CF	1-3	1	1	2
7N.Castellanos, RF	0-3	1	0	0
8B.Stott, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
9W.Merrifield, LF	0-3	0	0	0