Red Sox vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2023

Red Sox at Astros

12:10 am • TBS

Boston Red Sox

0-0

3 - 7

Houston Astros

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Verlander			3.31	7-3
T.Houck			5.01	6-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-195	o8.5-110	+108
Astros 0-2	-1.5+160	u8.5-110	-126

Wednesday 12:10 a.m.

August 23, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

HOU -1.5+145

1.45u

Under 9-118

$1.00

Y.Alvarez o0.5 HR+360

0.2u

BOS +138

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. I'm not super far off from market on this one, but I have the Red Sox's win odds at 46.8%, up from 43.9% implied. This is Tanner Houck's first start off the IL, which leaves open some uncertainty. But he pitched well in his three rehab starts, and at least the injury wasn't to his arm or lower body. Houck had poor results before his injury, potentially thanks to his inflated hard-hit rate allowed, but his expected ERA was still 3.92. He's facing Justin Verlander, who has had good results but is subject to variance via the number of balls in play he allows. I agree with the model here in that the Red Sox are undervalued.

J.Verlander u5.5 Ks+124

Available at FanDuel. Verlander is still going very deep in games, which is beneficial for this number. But in 11 starts with fewer sliders, Verlander has gone over this number five times, meaning the under is hitting at a 55% clip. He did have one big strikeout game since joining the Astros, but he has six total strikeouts in his other two starts. Boston's active roster has just a 20.5% strikeout rate against righties, so getting +124 on the under here is tough to pass up. I have Verlander projected for 4.8 strikeouts tonight.

J.Verlander u5.5 Ks+120

Verlander is under this line in 11/19 starts this season, and he’s under this line in 6/8 starts against teams in the lower half of K% vs righties this season. BOS has the 6th lowest K% vs righties this season (21%), and over the L14 days they have the lowest: 17.6%.

J.Verlander u18.5 Outs-165

0.24u

BOS +137

0.5u

Bet to +135

Featured Insight
The Astros have scored 4.8 runs per game on the road since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB (144 games). The Red Sox have allowed 5.0 runs per game at home since last season -- eighth-highest in MLB (144 games).

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Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored first in just 47% of their games since last season -- ninth-lowest in MLB. The Astros have allowed their opponents to score first in just 46% of their games since last season -- fifth-lowest in MLB.

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MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 41-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 22nd	BOS	W 9-4	-1.5 W	O 9	HOU -125
Aug 20th	SEA	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SEA -192
Aug 19th	SEA	L 3-10	-1.5 L	O 7.5	SEA -145
Aug 19th	SEA	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	SEA -145
Aug 16th	@MIA	W 12-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	HOU -111

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P	69	5	2	3
RJ.Winckowski, P	21	1	2	0
RM. Llovera, P	39	1	1	0
LB.Bernardino, P	21	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	0-2	0	0	0
1W.Abreu, RF	2-3	1	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	2-5	0	0	2
4M.Yoshida, LF	1-5	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	2-4	1	1	1
6T.Casas, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8L.Urias, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	96	6	9	0
RK.Graveman, P	22	1	2	0
RR.Stanek, P	15	1	0	1
RR.Montero, P	22	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
1J.Meyers, CF	1-1	0	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	1-4	2	0	0
3K.Tucker, RF	1-5	2	1	2
4Y.Diaz, 1B	1-4	1	0	1
5C.McCormick, LF	0-4	1	0	1
6M.Dubon, CF	1-3	1	0	0
6M.Dubon, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
7J.Singleton, DH	2-3	0	0	2
8J.Pena, SS	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	1-3	0	0	1