Red Sox vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2023

Red Sox at Astros

12:10 am • TBS
3 - 7
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Justin Verlander logoJ.VerlanderHouston Astros logo3.317-3
Tanner Houck logoT.HouckBoston Red Sox logo5.016-10

Red Sox at Astros Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox
0-0
+1.5-195
o8.5-110
+108
Astros
0-2
-1.5+160
u8.5-110
-126
location pinWednesday 12:10 a.m.
August 23, 2023
Minute Maid ParkHouston
Red Sox vs. Astros Expert Picks
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
440d ago
Last 30d: 54-47-1 (+4.7u)
HOU -1.5+145
1.45u
Nicholas Parsons
Nicholas Parsons
440d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
Under 9-118
$1.00
Charlie DiSturco
Charlie DiSturco
440d ago
Last 30d: 63-74-2 (+7.3u)
Y.Alvarez o0.5 HR+360
0.2u
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
440d ago
Last 30d: 13-31-0 (-6.2u)
BOS +138
0.8u
Available at FanDuel. I'm not super far off from market on this one, but I have the Red Sox's win odds at 46.8%, up from 43.9% implied. This is Tanner Houck's first start off the IL, which leaves open some uncertainty. But he pitched well in his three rehab starts, and at least the injury wasn't to his arm or lower body. Houck had poor results before his injury, potentially thanks to his inflated hard-hit rate allowed, but his expected ERA was still 3.92. He's facing Justin Verlander, who has had good results but is subject to variance via the number of balls in play he allows. I agree with the model here in that the Red Sox are undervalued.
J.Verlander u5.5 Ks+124
1u
Available at FanDuel. Verlander is still going very deep in games, which is beneficial for this number. But in 11 starts with fewer sliders, Verlander has gone over this number five times, meaning the under is hitting at a 55% clip. He did have one big strikeout game since joining the Astros, but he has six total strikeouts in his other two starts. Boston's active roster has just a 20.5% strikeout rate against righties, so getting +124 on the under here is tough to pass up. I have Verlander projected for 4.8 strikeouts tonight.
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
440d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
J.Verlander u5.5 Ks+120
1u
Verlander is under this line in 11/19 starts this season, and he’s under this line in 6/8 starts against teams in the lower half of K% vs righties this season. BOS has the 6th lowest K% vs righties this season (21%), and over the L14 days they have the lowest: 17.6%.
Joe Dellera
Joe Dellera
441d ago
Last 30d: 54-65-1 (-3.8u)
J.Verlander u18.5 Outs-165
0.24u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
441d ago
Last 30d: 79-99-3 (-9.9u)
BOS +137
0.5u
Bet to +135

PRO Insights

Red Sox logo

Red Sox

BOS Insights
  • Red Sox logoThe Astros have scored 4.8 runs per game on the road since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB (144 games). The Red Sox have allowed 5.0 runs per game at home since last season -- eighth-highest in MLB (144 games).
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Astros logo

Astros

HOU Insights
  • Astros logoThe Red Sox have scored first in just 47% of their games since last season -- ninth-lowest in MLB. The Astros have allowed their opponents to score first in just 46% of their games since last season -- fifth-lowest in MLB.
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Red Sox vs. Astros Previews & Analysis

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Red Sox vs. Astros Public Betting Percentages

100%

Bets%

0%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Astros
81-8040-4141-3956-6023-19
Red Sox
75-8732-4943-3830-4944-37

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Astros
65-91-537-41-328-50-245-66-518-24
Red Sox
79-75-837-40-442-35-437-40-241-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Astros
88-7346-3542-3866-5020-22
Red Sox
81-8138-4343-3842-3738-43

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 22ndBOSW 9-4-1.5 WO 9HOU -125
Aug 20thSEAL 6-7-1.5 LO 8.5SEA -192
Aug 19thSEAL 3-10-1.5 LO 7.5SEA -145
Aug 19thSEAL 0-2-1.5 LU 8.5SEA -145
Aug 16th@MIAW 12-5-1.5 WO 7.5HOU -111

Astros vs. Red Sox Injury Updates

Astros Injuries

  • Lance McCullers
    P

    McCullers is out with arm

    Out

  • Cristian Javier
    P

    Javier is out with elbow

    Out

  • Luis Garcia
    P

    Garcia is out with elbow

    Out

Red Sox Injuries

  • Lucas Giolito
    P

    Giolito is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Garrett Whitlock
    P

    Whitlock is out with oblique

    Out

  • David Hamilton
    IF

    Hamilton is out with finger

    Out

Red Sox vs. Astros Box Score
Red Sox Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Tanner Houck logoRT.Houck, P69523
Josh Winckowski logoRJ.Winckowski, P21120
Mauricio Llovera logoRM. Llovera, P39110
Brennan Bernardino logoLB.Bernardino, P21110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Alex Verdugo logo1A.Verdugo, RF0-2000
Wilyer Abreu logo1W.Abreu, RF2-3100
Rafael Devers logo2R.Devers, 3B1-4100
Justin Turner logo3J.Turner, DH2-5002
Masataka Yoshida logo4M.Yoshida, LF1-5000
Adam Duvall logo5A.Duvall, CF2-4111
Triston Casas logo6T.Casas, 1B0-3000
Trevor Story logo7T.Story, SS1-4000
Luis Urias logo8L.Urias, 2B0-3000
Connor Wong logo9C.Wong, C1-4000
Astros Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Justin Verlander logoRJ.Verlander, P96690
Kendall Graveman logoRK.Graveman, P22120
Ryne Stanek logoRR.Stanek, P15101
Rafael Montero logoRR.Montero, P22112
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Jose Altuve logo1J.Altuve, 2B0-4000
Jake Meyers logo1J.Meyers, CF1-1000
Alex Bregman logo2A.Bregman, 3B1-4200
Kyle Tucker logo3K.Tucker, RF1-5212
Yainer Diaz logo4Y.Diaz, 1B1-4101
Chas McCormick logo5C.McCormick, LF0-4101
Mauricio Dubon logo6M.Dubon, CF1-3100
Mauricio Dubon logo6M.Dubon, 2B1-3100
Jon Singleton logo7J.Singleton, DH2-3002
Jeremy Pena logo8J.Pena, SS0-2000
Martin Maldonado logo9M.Maldonado, C1-3001

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds Comparison

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Red Sox at Astros Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Red Sox
0-0
N/A
N/A
Astros
0-2
N/A
N/A