Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

12:10 am • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

2 - 5

Minnesota Twins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Paddack			4.99	5-3
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	-1.5	-1.5+170	o7.5-108	+103
Twins 0-0	u8	+1.5-205	u7.5-112	-123

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BOS -115 (F5)

0.5u

C.Paddack u15.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Paddack under in 3/5 - one over vs a terrible White Sox lineup, and the other 5.1 IP and got shelled by BAL. Has been awful vs lefties (.935 OPS allowed), and doesn’t throw strikes (63% is 78/128 qualifiers). Red Sox have 5 lefties in the lineup today, and have the 12th lowest chase rate the L30. And they’re taking - 141 wRC+ and .868 OPS the L14 days vs righties. Twins pen is rested after an off day - no need to push Paddack.

BOS +105

BOS -115 (F5)

1.15u

BOS +102

Under 8-110

T.Houck o5.5 Ks-125

0.63u

BOS -118 (F5)

0.59u

MIN -109

1.5u

DO I HEAR 11 STRAIGHT?

Under 8.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 8 (-105)

BOS -105 (F5)

0.53u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 58% of their games this season -- fifth highest in MLB. Twins have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games this season -- tied for fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs right-handed batters this season -- tied for second highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 32% against LHP this season -- highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.

Carlos Santana is batting just .177 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 40% of the time since last season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 76 total SL-- 95th Percentile.

Ryan Jeffers is batting .357 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 12th best among hitters with at least 43 total PA's-- 95th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 43% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 16-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -107

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		99	6	5	4
RN.Uwasawa, P		43	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	1	0
2R.Devers, 3B	2-3	0	2
3T.O'Neill, LF	0-4	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	0-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	0-4	0	0
7V.Grissom, 2B	0-3	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-2	1	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Paddack, P	83	6	6	0
RG.Jax, P	11	1	3	0
RC.Sands, P	12	0.2	1	2
LC.Thielbar, P	7	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Kirilloff, LF	0-4	1	0
1M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	1-2	0	2
3R.Jeffers, C	1-4	0	2
4M.Kepler, RF	1-3	0	0
5C.Correa, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Larnach, DH	1-3	0	0
6A.Martin, PR	0-1	1	0
6A.Martin, DH	0-1	1	0
7C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0
8W.Castro, CF	2-3	2	0
9J.Miranda, 3B	0-3	1	0
9K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0