Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

12:10 am • NESN

Boston Red Sox

9-7

2 - 5

Minnesota Twins

6-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Paddack			4.99	5-3
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 9-7	-1.5	-1.5+170	o7.5-108	+103
Twins 6-9	u8	+1.5-205	u7.5-112	-123

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BOS -115 (F5)

0.5u

C.Paddack u15.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Paddack under in 3/5 - one over vs a terrible White Sox lineup, and the other 5.1 IP and got shelled by BAL. Has been awful vs lefties (.935 OPS allowed), and doesn’t throw strikes (63% is 78/128 qualifiers). Red Sox have 5 lefties in the lineup today, and have the 12th lowest chase rate the L30. And they’re taking - 141 wRC+ and .868 OPS the L14 days vs righties. Twins pen is rested after an off day - no need to push Paddack.

BOS +105

MIN -121

Under 8-110

BOS -115 (F5)

1.15u

BOS +102

T.Houck o5.5 Ks-125

0.63u

BOS -118 (F5)

0.59u

BOS -115 (F5)

1.15u

MIN -109

1.5u

DO I HEAR 11 STRAIGHT?

Under 8.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 8 (-105)

BOS -105 (F5)

0.53u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 58% of their games this season -- fifth highest in MLB. Twins have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games this season -- tied for fourth highest in MLB.

TRY FOR FREE

Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs right-handed batters this season -- tied for second highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 32% against LHP this season -- highest in MLB.

TRY FOR FREE

Opening Pitch: Dabbundo's MLB Bets for Friday
Anthony Dabbundo•
May 3, 2024 UTC
Red Sox vs. Twins: Fade Red-Hot Minnesota?
Nick Martin•
May 3, 2024 UTC
MLB Best Bets: Four Picks for Friday's Slate
Action Network•
May 3, 2024 UTC

See more MLB Coverage

The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.

Carlos Santana is batting just .177 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 40% of the time since last season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 76 total SL-- 95th Percentile.

Ryan Jeffers is batting .357 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 12th best among hitters with at least 43 total PA's-- 95th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 43% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 16-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -107

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable

Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		99	6	5	4
RN.Uwasawa, P		43	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	1	0
2R.Devers, 3B	2-3	0	2
3T.O'Neill, LF	0-4	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	0-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	0-4	0	0
7V.Grissom, 2B	0-3	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-2	1	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Paddack, P	83	6	6	0
RG.Jax, P	11	1	3	0
RC.Sands, P	12	0.2	1	2
LC.Thielbar, P	7	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Kirilloff, LF	0-4	1	0
1M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	1-2	0	2
3R.Jeffers, C	1-4	0	2
4M.Kepler, RF	1-3	0	0
5C.Correa, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Larnach, DH	1-3	0	0
6A.Martin, PR	0-1	1	0
6A.Martin, DH	0-1	1	0
7C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0
8W.Castro, CF	2-3	2	0
9J.Miranda, 3B	0-3	1	0
9K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0