Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

6:10 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

8-7

1 - 3

Minnesota Twins

6-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
B.Bernardino			4.06	4-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 8-7	+1.5	+1.5-145	o7.5-109	+150
Twins 6-8	u7.5	-1.5+122	u7.5-110	-180

Saturday 6:10 p.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BOS +154

Under 7+105

1.05u

P.Lopez u7.5 Ks-113

1.13u

Five lefties in the Red Sox lineup - Pablo’s worse split. Whiff rates down a tick to start the season as well. Red Sox lineup was cooking before yesterday - counting on a bounceback today. And even though they K at an above avg rate, they have kept the L22 opposing righties under 7.5.

Under 7.5-115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season -- third lowest in MLB. The Twins have scored first in just 37% of their games this season -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 29% this season -- second highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 26% this season -- fifth highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Rafael Devers is slugging .515 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- seventh best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Jhoan Duran has thrown his curveball 31% of the time since the 2022 season -- 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 84th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Pablo Lopez's elevated fastball this season -- tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 -- 98th Percentile.

Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .241 (108 PA's) vs left-handed batters since last season -- 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .320 -- 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (16-for-98) against Brennan Bernardino since last season -- tied for 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .232 -- 95th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	BOS	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIN -123
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable

Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Bernardino, P	12	1	1	0
RG.Weissert, P	29	2	3	0
LC.Booser, P	22	1.1	2	1
RJ.Slaten, P	29	1.2	1	1
RC.Anderson, P	35	2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	0-2	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, PH	0-0	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, RF	0-0	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-4	1	0
4W.Abreu, RF	2-4	0	1
4W.Abreu, CF	2-4	0	1
5C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	2-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	0-3	0	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-4	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0
9R.McGuire, PH	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	99	6	8	1
RJ.Alcala, P	21	0.2	0	0
LS.Okert, P	14	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	15	1	2	0
RC.Sands, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Jeffers, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Miranda, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
2K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3W.Castro, LF	2-4	1	0	0
3W.Castro, CF	2-4	1	0	0
4C.Correa, SS	0-3	0	0	2
5M.Kepler, RF	2-4	1	1	1
6C.Santana, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Vazquez, C	1-4	0	0	0
8A.Martin, CF	1-2	0	0	0
8A.Kirilloff, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-2	0	0	0