Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

6:10 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

1 - 3

Minnesota Twins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
B.Bernardino			4.06	4-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5	+1.5-145	o7.5-109	+150
Twins 0-0	u7.5	-1.5+122	u7.5-110	-180

Saturday 6:10 p.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BOS +154

P.Lopez u7.5 Ks-113

1.13u

Five lefties in the Red Sox lineup - Pablo’s worse split. Whiff rates down a tick to start the season as well. Red Sox lineup was cooking before yesterday - counting on a bounceback today. And even though they K at an above avg rate, they have kept the L22 opposing righties under 7.5.

Under 7.5-115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season -- third lowest in MLB. The Twins have scored first in just 37% of their games this season -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 29% this season -- second highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 26% this season -- fifth highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Rafael Devers is slugging .515 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- seventh best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Jhoan Duran has thrown his curveball 31% of the time since the 2022 season -- 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 84th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Pablo Lopez's elevated fastball this season -- tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 -- 98th Percentile.

Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .241 (108 PA's) vs left-handed batters since last season -- 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .320 -- 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (16-for-98) against Brennan Bernardino since last season -- tied for 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .232 -- 95th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	BOS	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIN -123
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Bernardino, P	12	1	1	0
RG.Weissert, P	29	2	3	0
LC.Booser, P	22	1.1	2	1
RJ.Slaten, P	29	1.2	1	1
RC.Anderson, P	35	2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	0-2	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, PH	0-0	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, RF	0-0	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-4	1	0
4W.Abreu, RF	2-4	0	1
4W.Abreu, CF	2-4	0	1
5C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	2-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	0-3	0	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-4	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0
9R.McGuire, PH	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	99	6	8	1
RJ.Alcala, P	21	0.2	0	0
LS.Okert, P	14	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	15	1	2	0
RC.Sands, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Jeffers, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Miranda, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
2K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3W.Castro, LF	2-4	1	0	0
3W.Castro, CF	2-4	1	0	0
4C.Correa, SS	0-3	0	0	2
5M.Kepler, RF	2-4	1	1	1
6C.Santana, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Vazquez, C	1-4	0	0	0
8A.Martin, CF	1-2	0	0	0
8A.Kirilloff, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-2	0	0	0