Reds vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 31, 2024

Reds at Cubs

6:20 pm • MARQ

Cincinnati Reds

1-1

5 - 4

Chicago Cubs

3-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Assad			3.74	7-6
G.Ashcraft			5.24	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 1-1	+1.5-175	o8.5-115	+114
Cubs 3-0	-1.5+145	u8.5-105	-135

Friday 6:20 p.m.

May 31, 2024

Wrigley FieldChicago

J.Assad o0.5 Ks+200

0.5u

Elly 1st PA K

CIN o1.5 Team Total (F5)-160

0.31u

CIN +126

3.78u

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-132

0.76u

Over 8-106

0.94u

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-155

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-125

As good as Assad has been, he’s under in 6/11 starts, including 4/6 at wrigley. His control is an issue - 62.6% strike% is 101/128th, and 4.06 pitches/PA is 15th highest. Reds are 7th in pitches per PA, and importantly, they have the 5th lowest chase rate as a team. They aren’t hitting well, but they’ll drag out at bats, and should throw 5-6 lefties in the lineup (Assad’s worse split from an OPS and pitches per PA perspective).

Featured Insight
Reds RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB. Cubs right-handed hitters have struck out 31% against LHP over the last week -- tied for third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Cubs have a strikeout rate of 29% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- second highest in MLB. Reds left-handed hitters have struck out 29% against RHP over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB.

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The Reds are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nico Hoerner has struck out in just 12% of PA's since last season -- sixth lowest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 17% vs right-handed batters since last season -- 15th lowest among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP-- 12th Percentile.

Jonathan India has an OPS of just .650 with RISP since last season -- ninth worst in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .366 (167 PAs) with RISP since last season -- best among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP-- 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.36 (95.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 -- 0 Percentile.

Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .401 (198 PA's) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .725 -- 100th Percentile.

5 of Javier Assad's 15 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an average spin rate of 2790.9 RPM on sliders since the 2022 season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 2407.6 -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Cubs' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 30th	@MIL	L 4-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL +105
May 29th	@MIL	L 6-10	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIL -148
May 28th	@MIL	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 8	CHC +140
May 27th	@MIL	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 8	MIL -115
May 26th	@STL	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 8	STL +122

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Ashcraft, P	83	4.2	4	3
RF.Cruz, P	22	1.1	0	0
LS.Moll, P	16	1	0	0
RL.Sims, P	16	1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	19	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	1-5	0	0	1
2E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	0-2	1	0	0
4S.Steer, LF	0-2	1	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	0-2	1	0	0
5J.Fraley, RF	1-4	1	0	0
6T.Stephenson, C	2-3	0	0	1
7N.Martini, DH	1-2	0	0	1
7S.Fairchild, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7S.Fairchild, DH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.India, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
8J.Hurtubise, PR	0-0	1	0	0
8J.Hurtubise, LF	0-0	1	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	1-1	0	0	0
9S.Espinal, PH	1-1	1	1	2
9S.Espinal, 3B	1-1	1	1	2
9S.Espinal, 2B	1-1	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	98	5.1	7	2
LD.Smyly, P	32	1.1	3	2
RT.Miller, P	31	1.1	1	0
RH.Neris, P	20	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Tauchman, DH	1-2	0	0	0
1P.Wisdom, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1P.Wisdom, DH	0-1	0	0	0
1N.Madrigal, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2S.Suzuki, RF	1-4	0	0	1
3C.Bellinger, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
4C.Morel, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
5I.Happ, LF	1-3	1	1	3
6N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	2-4	1	0	0
9Y.Gomes, C	0-2	1	0	0
9M.Busch, PH	0-0	0	0	0