Reds vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 6, 2023

Reds at Nationals

5:05 pm • MASN2

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

5 - 4

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			4.42	7-10
B.Williamson			4.46	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-0	+1.5-181	o9.5-115	+110
Nationals 0-0	-1.5+150	u9.5-105	-130

Thursday 5:05 p.m.

July 06, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

Under 9.5 (Live)+100

Slow start and a rain delay won’t help

WSH -127

Hey baby call me if you need a milking

S.Steer o1.5 RBI+600

0.1u

S.Garrett o1.5 RBI+500

0.1u

L.Thomas o1.5 Total Bases-115

0.5u

S.Garrett o1.5 Total Bases+115

0.5u

L.Thomas o0.5 HR+420

0.1u

S.Garrett o0.5 HR+400

0.1u

S.Steer o1.5 Total Bases+120

0.5u

S.Steer o0.5 HR+430

0.1u

WSH -118

0.5u

WSH -124

1.5u

M.Gore u17.5 Outs-120

MGM. Gore is under this line in 10/17 starts this season. CIN has adopted a much more patient approach of late - over the L30 days, the Reds have the 2nd lowest chase rate, and the lowest overall swing rate. Gore only hits the zone with 41.3% of his pitches (35th percentile), which leads him to throwing 4.22 pitches per PA, 3rd most in baseball. 18/L23 lefty starters under this line vs CIN. Plus, the Reds are the second best team at hitting 4 seamers (per wRC), and 60% of PAs vs Gore are off of the 4 seamer. Favorable hitting conditions in DC today as well.

WSH -112

Betrivers 1:10.

Over 5.5 (F5)+102

Over 9.5-115

1.15u

WSH o2.5 (F5)-125

0.5u

Flat risk to -133

CIN o2.5 (F5)+105

0.5u

Bet to -105

Over 9.5-115

0.58u

Bet to -125 or 10 (-107)

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The Nationals are just 27-33 (.450) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.

Keibert Ruiz has an OPS of just .651 this season -- 11th worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .495 (154 PAs) this season -- fourth best among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

43% of Nick Senzel strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fourth highest among hitters with at least 127 total PA's-- 99th Percentile. 44% of MacKenzie Gore's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .192 (15 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 5th	CIN	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN -105
Jul 4th	CIN	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 10	CIN -105
Jul 3rd	CIN	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN +105
Jul 2nd	@PHI	W 5-4	+1.5 W	U 9	WSH +220
Jul 1st	@PHI	L 4-19	+1.5 L	O 8.5	PHI +177

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Williamson, P	59	3	4	0
RB.Farmer, P	29	1.2	1	2
RI.Gibaut, P	28	1.1	2	0
RD.Duarte, P	22	1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	15	1	1	0
RL.Sims, P	12	1	0	0
RT.Santillan, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Newman, 1B	1-3	0	0	1
1C.Casali, C	0-0	0	0	0
1J. Votto, PH	1-2	0	0	1
1J. Votto, 1B	1-2	0	0	1
2M.McLain, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.India, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Fraley, RF	0-0	0	0	0
4E.De La Cruz, 3B	2-4	0	0	1
4E.De La Cruz, SS	2-4	0	0	1
5S.Steer, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6T.Stephenson, DH	0-4	1	0	0
6T.Stephenson, C	0-4	1	0	0
7N.Senzel, CF	1-4	1	1	2
7N.Senzel, RF	1-4	1	1	2
7N.Senzel, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
8W.Benson, RF	1-3	2	0	0
8W.Benson, LF	1-3	2	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Friedl, PH	0-0	1	0	0
9T.Friedl, CF	0-0	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	17	1.1	1	0
RM.Thompson, P	31	2.2	0	1
RJ.Weems, P	28	1.2	2	1
LJ.Ferrer, P	14	1.1	0	0
RK.Finnegan, P	23	1	0	1
RH.Harvey, P	22	1.1	3	1
RC. Abbott, P	15	0.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Thomas, RF	2-5	0	0	3
2J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
2L.Garcia, PR	0-0	0	0	0
3J.Meneses, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
3D.Smith, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
4S.Garrett, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4C. Dickerson, PH	0-2	0	0	0
4C. Dickerson, LF	0-2	0	0	0
5K.Ruiz, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6I.Vargas, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7R.Adams, C	3-4	0	0	0
8C.Abrams, SS	0-4	1	0	0
9A.Call, CF	1-2	3	1	1