Reds vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 6, 2023

Reds at Nationals

5:05 pm • MASN2

Cincinnati Reds

6-6

5 - 4

Washington Nationals

6-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			4.42	7-10
B.Williamson			4.46	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 6-6	+1.5-181	o9.5-115	+110
Nationals 6-5	-1.5+150	u9.5-105	-130

Thursday 5:05 p.m.

July 06, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

Under 9.5 (Live)+100

Slow start and a rain delay won’t help

J.Meneses o0.5 HR+480

0.25u

Tailing @phurl_

WSH -127

Hey baby call me if you need a milking

WSH -118

0.5u

WSH o5-104

1.04u

WSH -124

1.24u

WSH -124

1.5u

M.Gore u17.5 Outs-120

MGM. Gore is under this line in 10/17 starts this season. CIN has adopted a much more patient approach of late - over the L30 days, the Reds have the 2nd lowest chase rate, and the lowest overall swing rate. Gore only hits the zone with 41.3% of his pitches (35th percentile), which leads him to throwing 4.22 pitches per PA, 3rd most in baseball. 18/L23 lefty starters under this line vs CIN. Plus, the Reds are the second best team at hitting 4 seamers (per wRC), and 60% of PAs vs Gore are off of the 4 seamer. Favorable hitting conditions in DC today as well.

WSH -112

Betrivers 1:10.

WSH o2.5 (F5)-125

0.5u

Flat risk to -133

CIN o2.5 (F5)+105

0.5u

Bet to -105

Over 9.5-115

0.58u

Bet to -125 or 10 (-107)

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The Nationals are just 27-33 (.450) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.

Keibert Ruiz has an OPS of just .651 this season -- 11th worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .495 (154 PAs) this season -- fourth best among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

43% of Nick Senzel strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fourth highest among hitters with at least 127 total PA's-- 99th Percentile. 44% of MacKenzie Gore's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .192 (15 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 5th	CIN	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN -105
Jul 4th	CIN	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 10	CIN -105
Jul 3rd	CIN	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN +105
Jul 2nd	@PHI	W 5-4	+1.5 W	U 9	WSH +220
Jul 1st	@PHI	L 4-19	+1.5 L	O 8.5	PHI +177

Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Williamson, P	59	3	4	0
RB.Farmer, P	29	1.2	1	2
RI.Gibaut, P	28	1.1	2	0
RD.Duarte, P	22	1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	15	1	1	0
RL.Sims, P	12	1	0	0
RT.Santillan, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Newman, 1B	1-3	0	0	1
1C.Casali, C	0-0	0	0	0
1J. Votto, PH	1-2	0	0	1
1J. Votto, 1B	1-2	0	0	1
2M.McLain, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.India, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Fraley, RF	0-0	0	0	0
4E.De La Cruz, 3B	2-4	0	0	1
4E.De La Cruz, SS	2-4	0	0	1
5S.Steer, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6T.Stephenson, DH	0-4	1	0	0
6T.Stephenson, C	0-4	1	0	0
7N.Senzel, CF	1-4	1	1	2
7N.Senzel, RF	1-4	1	1	2
7N.Senzel, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
8W.Benson, RF	1-3	2	0	0
8W.Benson, LF	1-3	2	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Friedl, PH	0-0	1	0	0
9T.Friedl, CF	0-0	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	17	1.1	1	0
RM.Thompson, P	31	2.2	0	1
RJ.Weems, P	28	1.2	2	1
LJ.Ferrer, P	14	1.1	0	0
RK.Finnegan, P	23	1	0	1
RH.Harvey, P	22	1.1	3	1
RC. Abbott, P	15	0.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Thomas, RF	2-5	0	0	3
2J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
2L.Garcia, PR	0-0	0	0	0
3J.Meneses, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
3D.Smith, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
4S.Garrett, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4C. Dickerson, PH	0-2	0	0	0
4C. Dickerson, LF	0-2	0	0	0
5K.Ruiz, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6I.Vargas, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7R.Adams, C	3-4	0	0	0
8C.Abrams, SS	0-4	1	0	0
9A.Call, CF	1-2	3	1	1