Reds vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 5, 2023

Reds at Nationals

11:05 pm • MASN2

Cincinnati Reds

11-12

9 - 2

Washington Nationals

9-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Gray			3.91	8-13
G.Ashcraft			4.76	7-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 11-12	-1.5+140	o9.5-120	-112
Nationals 9-13	+1.5-170	u9.5-104	-105

Wednesday 11:05 p.m.

July 05, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

Over 9.5-112

WSH +110

WSH -110

2.2u

CIN -113

WSH -104

1.04u

G.Ashcraft u17.5 Outs-120

This is one of our highest MLB edges on our FTN Model at FTNBets.com!

CIN o4.5-130

0.77u

Over 9.5-110

0.91u

Fading is the only way I have fun in MLB now

Under 9.5-105

1.05u

WSH +112

0.5u

WSH +110

0.4u

G.Ashcraft o3.5 Ks+102

Over 9.5-115

0.5u

Bet to -123 or 10 (-105)

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Jul 5, 2023 UTC

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The Nationals are just 27-33 (.450) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.

Tyler Stephenson has an OPS of just .593 with RISP this season -- 13th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Josiah Gray has allowed an OPS of just .543 (111 PAs) with RISP this season -- 10th best among qualified SPs-- 85th Percentile.

Dominic Smith has an OPS of just .666 this season -- 14th worst in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .495 (154 PAs) this season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 72 of 473 left-handed batters (15%) since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed a .462 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth worst)-- 13th Percentile and just .317 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for fourth best among qualified SPs)-- 93rd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 4-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Nationals' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	10-12	6-3	4-9	1-3	9-9
Reds	13-10	7-5	6-5	4-3	9-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	12-10	7-2	5-8	3-1	9-9
Reds	12-10-1	5-6-1	7-4	2-4-1	9-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	9-13	5-4	4-9	2-2	7-11
Reds	11-12	6-6	5-6	4-3	7-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 4th	CIN	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 10	CIN -105
Jul 3rd	CIN	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN +105
Jul 2nd	@PHI	W 5-4	+1.5 W	U 9	WSH +220
Jul 1st	@PHI	L 4-19	+1.5 L	O 8.5	PHI +177
Jun 30th	@PHI	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 9.5	WSH +160

Michael Soroka
P
Soroka is out with biceps
Out
Paul DeJong
IF
DeJong is out with nose
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Andres Chaparro
IF
Chaparro is out with oblique
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out
DJ Herz
P
Herz is out with elbow
Out

Tyler Stephenson
C
Stephenson is out with oblique
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
P
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Ashcraft, P	98	6	2	1
RD.Law, P	20	1	0	1
LA.Young, P	9	1	0	0
RF.Cruz, P	22	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	2-5	0	0	1
2M.McLain, SS	1-6	0	0	1
3J.India, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
4E.De La Cruz, 3B	3-6	2	1	1
5J.Fraley, RF	2-4	2	0	1
6J. Votto, 1B	3-5	2	1	1
7S.Steer, DH	1-5	1	0	0
8T.Stephenson, C	1-2	2	0	1
9W.Benson, LF	2-5	0	0	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Gray, P	102	5	6	3
RA.Willingham, P	22	1	1	0
LJ.La Sorsa, P	51	2	2	4
RJ.Weems, P	27	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Thomas, RF	2-4	1	0
2L.Garcia, 2B	1-4	1	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	0	0
3M. Chavis, 3B	0-1	0	0
4J.Meneses, DH	1-3	0	1
5D.Smith, 1B	0-3	0	0
6K.Ruiz, C	1-4	0	0
7C. Dickerson, LF	2-3	0	0
7S.Garrett, PH	0-1	0	0
7S.Garrett, LF	0-1	0	0
8C.Abrams, SS	1-3	0	0
9A.Call, CF	1-4	0	0