Rockies vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - March 31, 2023

Rockies at Padres

1:40 am • BSSD

Colorado Rockies

10-8

7 - 2

San Diego Padres

5-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Snell			2.25	14-9
G.Marquez			4.95	2-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rockies 10-8	+1.5-120	o7-120	+180
Padres 5-12	-1.5+100	u7+100	-225

Friday 1:40 a.m.

March 31, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Under 8.5+100

Y.Daza o1.5 Total Bases+160

SD -1.5+100

J.Soto o0.5 HR+650

0.1u

Bet at Bet365. Betting on 10 players to hit HR for 0.1U each.

Over 3.5 (F5)-105

0.95u

COL +1.5-130

COL +185

0.93u

SD -210

Keeping units low here because it's the first time using my updated MLB moneyline model. Available at FanDuel. I've got the Padres at 71% to win versus 67.7% implied. It's not because of German Marquez on the other side but rather because of basically everything else on the Rockies' roster. The Rockies do benefit from facing a lefty, but their low fly-ball rate reduces the odds they can exploit Snell's biggest weaknesses. It's tough to lay -210 on a volatile pitcher, but this specific matchup increases my comfort with it.

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MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Rockies	80-82	43-38	37-44	3-2	77-80

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Rockies	80-80-2	37-43-1	43-37-1	3-2	77-78-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Rockies	61-101	37-44	24-57	3-2	58-99

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 27th	@SEA	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 9.5	SD -107
Mar 26th	SEA	W 5-5	-1.5 L	O 9	SEA -130
Mar 25th	@TEX	W 5-3	-	-	SD +115
Mar 24th	@LAA	W 3-0	-	-	SD +116
Mar 23rd	@MIL	L 2-4	-	-	-

Brenton Doyle
OF
Brenton Doyle has been Scratched Friday
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Marquez, P	87	6	5	2
RD. Lamet, P	20	1	2	0
RJ.Lawrence, P	14	1	3	0
RJ.Bird, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y. Daza, CF	1-5	1	0	0
2K.Bryant, RF	3-5	1	0	1
3C.Blackmon, DH	3-5	1	0	0
4C. Cron, 1B	4-5	2	2	5
5E.Montero, 3B	2-5	1	1	1
5A.Trejo, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6R.McMahon, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
7E.Diaz, C	1-4	0	0	0
8H. Castro, LF	1-5	1	0	0
9E.Tovar, SS	1-5	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	93	4.1	9	3
RN.Crismatt, P	32	1.2	2	2
RD. Tapia, P	42	2	4	2
RS.Wilson, P	20	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Grisham, CF	1-4	1	0
2J.Soto, LF	0-4	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	1-3	0	1
4X.Bogaerts, SS	3-4	1	0
5J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-3	0	0
6M.Carpenter, DH	0-3	0	1
7A.Nola, C	1-3	0	0
8H.Kim, 2B	1-4	0	0
9D.Dahl, RF	0-4	0	0