Twins vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - June 30, 2023

Twins at Orioles

11:05 pm • MASN2

Minnesota Twins

5-5

8 - 1

Baltimore Orioles

5-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Kremer			4.12	13-5
P.Lopez			3.67	11-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 5-5	-1.5+152	o8.5-110	-110
Orioles 5-6	+1.5-180	u8.5-110	-110

Friday 11:05 p.m.

June 30, 2023

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

MIN o4-130

0.77u

MIN -102

MIN -105

0.95u

Orioles -115 at home on a Friday? Shore

BAL -115

1.15u

MIN -105

P.Lopez o5.5 Ks-140

0.71u

BAL -108

1.1u

Available at FanDuel. My model has the Orioles at 55.3% to win here, up from 51.9% implied. I understand why the market is here; Pablo Lopez is a very good pitcher. But I think the offensive gap between the two teams is pretty large, and Dean Kremer is improving. Over his past 7 starts, he has basically ditched his slider, leaning more on his cutter instead. Both his ERA and SIERA are under 4.00 in that time, even with some tough matchups sprinkled in. The Twins aren't a tough matchup right now, though I do expect them to improve as the season goes along. Regardless, I think the Orioles are the better team in this game, and they aren't being treated as such once you account for homefield.

Over 8.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -115

MIN -110 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -128

MIN -103

0.39u

MIN +100

0.5u

Bet to -110

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The Orioles are 48-30 (.615) this season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Byron Buxton has struck out in 31% of PA's this season -- seventh highest in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Felix Bautista has a strikeout rate of 50% this season -- highest among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

Gunnar Henderson has struck out in 30% of PA's this season -- 10th highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Jhoan Duran has a strikeout rate of 35% this season -- tied for 15th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .301 (49-for-163) against Dean Kremer's non-fastballs this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 -- third Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .566 (47 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .309 -- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Orioles' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 28th	CIN	L 7-11	-1.5 L	O 9.5	CIN -170
Jun 27th	CIN	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8	CIN -158
Jun 26th	CIN	W 10-3	-1.5 W	O 10	BAL -130
Jun 25th	SEA	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8	BAL +100
Jun 24th	SEA	W 6-4	-	O 9	BAL -119

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Trevor Rogers
P
Rogers is out with knee
Out
Kyle Bradish
P
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Chayce McDermott
P
McDermott is questionable with back
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	100	6	6	1
LJ. Moran, P	8	1	1	0
RE.Pagan, P	19	1	2	0
RJ. Balazovic, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Correa, SS	2-4	2	0	0
1M.Taylor, CF	0-0	0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
2K.Farmer, PH	1-3	0	0	0
2K.Farmer, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2K.Farmer, SS	1-3	0	0	0
3B.Buxton, DH	2-4	2	1	3
4A.Kirilloff, 1B	2-5	1	0	1
5R.Lewis, 3B	3-5	0	0	1
6M.Kepler, RF	2-5	1	1	2
7R.Jeffers, C	0-5	0	0	0
8W.Castro, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8W.Castro, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9J.Gallo, LF	1-3	2	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Kremer, P	89	3	5	7
LB.Zimmermann, P	35	2	2	1
LN.Vespi, P	43	3	3	0
LC.Perez, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	0-3	0	0	0
2A.Rutschman, DH	1-4	1	1	1
3A.Santander, RF	1-4	0	0	0
4R.O'Hearn, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Hays, LF	2-4	0	0	0
6G.Henderson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
7R.Urias, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Frazier, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
8J.Westburg, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Westburg, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
9A. Bemboom, C	0-2	0	0	0