White Sox vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - March 30, 2023

FanDuel: Valdez tends to throw the ball in the zone at a high rate (46% was 3rd highest zone% last year) so he could struggle to rack up Ks against a CHW lineup that swings at a high rate and makes contact above league average. His easiest K victim is Romy Gonzalez, but since he’s hitting 9th and Valdez will likely have a 85-90 opening day pitch count, I’m only giving him a 20% chance of getting to face Romy a 3rd time. That’s offering some sneaky value to his under and I’m projecting him with a 60% chance to stay under 5.5

Keeping units low here because it's the first time using my updated MLB moneyline model. Available at FanDuel. I'm a bit surprised this one is projected so tight given how high the market is on the Astros this year. It's likely due to respect for Dylan Cease, which is warranted, but Framber Valdez is great, too. He kills worms and increased his strikeout rate last year thanks to increased reliance on his slider. The Astros should hold the edge in most other departments, boasting a better bullpen and defense plus a better offense (even if the White Sox get a boost against a lefty). I've got the Astros at 64.2% to win versus 60.9% implied.

Bet to +118