Yankees vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 15, 2023

Yankees at Braves

11:20 pm • TBS
0 - 5
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Bryce Elder logoB.ElderAtlanta Braves logo3.8112-4
Luis Severino logoL.SeverinoNew York Yankees logo6.654-8

Yankees at Braves Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Yankees
8-6
+1.5-107
o10.5-115
+182
Braves
0-2
-1.5-113
u10.5-105
-225
location pinTuesday 11:20 p.m.
August 15, 2023
Truist ParkAtlanta
Yankees vs. Braves Expert Picks
The Degenerates
The Degenerates
467d ago
Last 30d: 81-85-3 (-13.1u)
Over 10.5-110
1.1u
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
467d ago
Last 30d: 16-21-0 (+10.5u)
B.Elder u4.5 Ks-116
0.86u
Available at FanDuel. As mentioned when discussing the Yankees' ML, Elder has been leaning more on his sinker of late, and it has cratered his strikeout rate. In the 13-start sample with more sinkers, Elder has hit the over on this number just 4 times (he's 1-for-6 at home). The Yankees' active roster has roughly a league-average strikeout rate against righties, so I've got Elder projected for 3.69 strikeouts, well below the mark needed to justify laying -116 on the under.
NYY +184
0.6u
Available at FanDuel. The Braves are a wrecking ball, so it *sucks* to bet against them, especially with a pitcher in Luis Severino who seems broken right now. But Braves starter Bryce Elder also isn't in pristine form at the moment. Over his past 13 starts with increased sinker usage, his SIERA has inflated to 5.15 due to just a 14.8% strikeout rate. The issues have been more apparent recently as he has let up five-plus runs in four of his past six starts (though three of those came on the road). I get why the market is here, but my model has the Yankees' win odds closer to 40% than the implied odds of 35.2%.
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
468d ago
Last 30d: 32-56-1 (-8.4u)
Under 11-115
0.5u
Bet to -118 or 10.5 (+100)
NYY +184
0.5u
Tuesday. Bet to +175

PRO Insights

Yankees logo

Yankees

NYY Insights
  • Yankees logoThe Braves have scored 3.4 runs per game while leading this season -- fifth-highest in MLB (101 games). The Yankees have allowed 3.0 runs per game while trailing this season -- eighth-highest in MLB (75 games).
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Braves logo

Braves

ATL Insights
  • Braves logoYankees Left Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against RHP since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB. BravesRPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs left-handed batters since last season -- fourth-highest in MLB.
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Yankees vs. Braves Previews & Analysis

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Yankees vs. Braves Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Yankees vs. Braves Public Betting Percentages

100%

Bets%

0%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Braves
75-8735-4640-4160-7115-16
Yankees
80-8235-4645-3662-7218-9

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Braves
58-94-1025-53-333-41-745-77-913-17-1
Yankees
87-69-645-33-342-36-376-54-411-14-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Braves
89-7346-3543-3876-5513-18
Yankees
94-6844-3750-3176-5818-9

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Aug 14thNYYW 11-3-1.5 WO 9ATL -199
Aug 13th@NYML 6-7-1.5 LO 9.5NYM -140
Aug 12th@NYMW 6-0-1.5 WU 8.5ATL -231
Aug 12th@NYMW 21-3-1.5 WO 10.5ATL -225
Aug 11th@NYMW 7-0-1.5 WU 9.5ATL -199

Braves vs. Yankees Injury Updates

Braves Injuries

  • Chris Sale
    P

    Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.

    Out

  • Ronald Acuna
    OF

    Acuna is out for season with knee

    Out for Season

  • Austin Riley
    IF

    Riley is out with hand

    Out

  • Spencer Strider
    P

    Strider is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

Yankees Injuries

  • Nestor Cortes
    P

    Cortes is out with elbow

    Out

  • JT Brubaker
    P

    Brubaker is out with elbow

    Out

Yankees vs. Braves Box Score
Yankees Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Luis Severino logoRL.Severino, P83453
Wandy Peralta logoLW.Peralta, P24110
Jonathan Loaisiga logoRJ.Loaisiga, P10100
Tommy Kahnle logoRT.Kahnle, P19130
Clay Holmes logoRC.Holmes, P13100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Isiah Kiner-Falefa logo1I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B0-3000
Aaron Judge logo2A.Judge, RF0-2000
Gleyber Torres logo3G.Torres, 2B0-3000
Giancarlo Stanton logo4G.Stanton, DH0-2000
Jake Bauers logo5J.Bauers, LF0-3000
DJ LeMahieu logo6D.LeMahieu, 1B1-2000
Harrison Bader logo7H.Bader, CF0-3000
Anthony Volpe logo8A.Volpe, SS0-3000
Ben Rortvedt logo9B.Rortvedt, C0-2000
Billy McKinney logo9B.McKinney, PH0-1000
Braves Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Bryce Elder logoRB.Elder, P94730
A.J. Minter logoLA.Minter, P13100
Kirby Yates logoRK.Yates, P12110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Ronald Acuna logo1R.Acuna, RF2-5212
Michael Harris logo2M.Harris, CF1-5000
Austin Riley logo3A.Riley, 3B0-4000
Matt Olson logo4M.Olson, 1B1-3100
Marcell Ozuna logo5M.Ozuna, DH2-2113
Eddie Rosario logo6E.Rosario, LF0-3000
Sean Murphy logo7S.Murphy, C0-1100
Orlando Arcia logo8O.Arcia, SS0-4000
Nicky Lopez logo9N.Lopez, 2B0-4000

Yankees vs. Braves Odds Comparison

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Yankees at Braves Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Yankees
8-6
N/A
N/A
Braves
0-2
N/A
N/A