Yankees vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - August 15, 2023

Yankees at Braves

11:20 pm • TBS

New York Yankees

0-0

0 - 5

Atlanta Braves

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Elder			3.81	12-4
L.Severino			6.65	4-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Yankees 0-0	+1.5-107	o10.5-115	+182
Braves 0-0	-1.5-113	u10.5-105	-225

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

August 15, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

Over 10.5-110

1.1u

B.Elder u4.5 Ks-116

0.86u

Available at FanDuel. As mentioned when discussing the Yankees' ML, Elder has been leaning more on his sinker of late, and it has cratered his strikeout rate. In the 13-start sample with more sinkers, Elder has hit the over on this number just 4 times (he's 1-for-6 at home). The Yankees' active roster has roughly a league-average strikeout rate against righties, so I've got Elder projected for 3.69 strikeouts, well below the mark needed to justify laying -116 on the under.

NYY +184

0.6u

Available at FanDuel. The Braves are a wrecking ball, so it *sucks* to bet against them, especially with a pitcher in Luis Severino who seems broken right now. But Braves starter Bryce Elder also isn't in pristine form at the moment. Over his past 13 starts with increased sinker usage, his SIERA has inflated to 5.15 due to just a 14.8% strikeout rate. The issues have been more apparent recently as he has let up five-plus runs in four of his past six starts (though three of those came on the road). I get why the market is here, but my model has the Yankees' win odds closer to 40% than the implied odds of 35.2%.

Under 11-115

0.5u

Bet to -118 or 10.5 (+100)

NYY +184

0.5u

Tuesday. Bet to +175

Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 3.4 runs per game while leading this season -- fifth-highest in MLB (101 games). The Yankees have allowed 3.0 runs per game while trailing this season -- eighth-highest in MLB (75 games).

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Featured Insight
Yankees Left Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against RHP since last season -- fifth-highest in MLB. BravesRPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs left-handed batters since last season -- fourth-highest in MLB.

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The Braves are 38-15 (.717) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Gleyber Torres has struck out in just 14% of PA's this season -- 14th lowest in MLB-- 91st Percentile. Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 18% this season -- ninth lowest among qualified SPs-- 13th Percentile.

Sean Murphy has an OPS of .919 this season -- 11th best among hitters with at least 175 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Luis Severino has allowed an OPS of 1.005 (311 PAs) this season -- second worst among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP-- first Percentile.

Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (513/1,065) this season -- 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 96th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 14th	NYY	W 11-3	-1.5 W	O 9	ATL -199
Aug 13th	@NYM	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 9.5	NYM -140
Aug 12th	@NYM	W 6-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	ATL -231
Aug 12th	@NYM	W 21-3	-1.5 W	O 10.5	ATL -225
Aug 11th	@NYM	W 7-0	-1.5 W	U 9.5	ATL -199

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

JT Brubaker
P
Brubaker is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	83	4	5	3
LW.Peralta, P	24	1	1	0
RJ.Loaisiga, P	10	1	0	0
RT.Kahnle, P	19	1	3	0
RC.Holmes, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1I.Kiner-Falefa, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
2A.Judge, RF	0-2	0	0	0
3G.Torres, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
4G.Stanton, DH	0-2	0	0	0
5J.Bauers, LF	0-3	0	0	0
6D.LeMahieu, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
7H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Volpe, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Rortvedt, C	0-2	0	0	0
9B.McKinney, PH	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RB.Elder, P	94	7	3
LA.Minter, P	13	1	0
RK.Yates, P	12	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	2	1	2
2M.Harris, CF	1-5	0	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	2-2	1	1	3
6E.Rosario, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7S.Murphy, C	0-1	1	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9N.Lopez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0