76ers vs. Jazz Odds & Betting Predictions - December 29, 2024

📊 Projection ~ 218.4

John Collins ⬇️ 2.5 Assists (-144 @ FanDuel) THE BOUNCE 📽️: 1.92 Assists John Collins has been a mixed bag when it comes to hitting the 2.5 assists mark, with recent performances showing a trend toward staying under this line. He has been under in each of his last 3 games, but went over in the two prior. Let’s break down the data more closely to understand why the under is worth considering. Over the last five games, Collins has averaged just **2.3 potential assists per game**, despite playing an average of **36.6 minutes per game**. This is a significant concern, as the volume of potential assists is relatively low, especially for a player logging nearly 37 minutes per game. To put this into perspective, his teammate Walker Kessler, who plays fewer minutes (just under 30 per game), is averaging **more potential assists** than Collins. This suggests that Collins isn’t as involved in the playmaking process for the Jazz as one might expect, which lowers the chances of him exceeding the 2.5 assists mark. Additionally, the **Philadelphia 76ers** present a tough matchup for Collins in this regard. The 76ers are allowing the **13th fewest assists per game** in the league, meaning they have a relatively strong defense when it comes to limiting assists. With Joel Embiid likely to play tonight, his presence will likely slow down the tempo of the game. Embiid’s defensive ability and physicality in the paint make it harder for opposing players to get easy assists, especially for bigs like Collins who might be involved in more low-post action. Furthermore, the Jazz, who rank 12th in pace, are likely to face a slower-paced game against the 76ers. A slower tempo means fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for Collins to rack up assists. This is a pace-down spot for the Jazz, which reduces the likelihood that Collins will reach 3 or more assists.

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