Celtics vs. 76ers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 11, 2023

Celtics at 76ers

11:30 pm • ESPN

Boston Celtics

4-3

95 - 86

Philadelphia 76ers

3-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Celtics 4-3	-2.5-110	o210.5-112	-140
76ers 3-4	+2.5-110	u210.5-110	+116

Thursday 11:30 p.m.

May 11, 2023

Wells Fargo CenterPhiladelphia

J.Brown o24.5 Pts-115

1.15u

BOS -2-110

PHI +135 (Live)

0.3u

PHI +230 (Live)

0.25u

Feels like this game should be double digits - sixers just hanging around. I’ll bite.

J.Embiid o3.5 Ast+125

0.5u

J.Embiid o3.5 Ast+125

Ran this same play back in Feb. BOS adjustment starting Rob Williams as an aided rim protector for Embiid. 5 assists on 12 potential in the reg szn when this happened. BOS becomes a top 10 PITP allowed team w/ this change. #PlayerProps

P.Tucker o1.5 3pt M+370

0.93u

A.Horford o8.5 Pts-125

1.25u

Buy-low going 2-14 from 3PT L2 games. Game 6 adj has Timelord starting over White. This should help Horford’s scoring, taking away C&S shooter for a low-USG% rim presence. Al had 11 & 15 PTS vs PHI L2 games this happened. #PlayerProps

Under 211.5-105

M.Brogdon o21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-113

R.Williams o9.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

@ChrisRaybon

R.Williams o9.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

10+ PRA in 21-of-26 (81%) off bench this season (13/15 regular season, 8/11 postseason). Averaging 0.74 PRA per min so could clear this in as little as 13-14 min, but may also see mins tick back up with BOS desperate for a jolt of energy/toughness and Horford struggling to provide the spacing/offense that relegated Williams to a lesser role in the first place.

M.Smart o17.5 Pts+Ast-130

0.77u

BOS -2.5-110

J.Embiid o30.5 Pts-125

G.Niang u6.5 Pts+Rebs-130

Under in 22/23 games (96%) when seeing <15 MIN. Big adj. in Game 5 was Doc running out House Jr. (15 MIN) more as a quicker/ better defender on BOS guards. He’s gone 62.3 MIN without grabbing a rebound. O1.5 3PM is +175. #PlayerProps

J.Brown u25.5 Pts-125

0.8u

Has yet to hit this number this series and looking at his last 2 year Playoff history he’s exceeded this in just 12/35 games (34%) with 4 coming against Atlanta. With a mins floor of 35 mins in a must win game he still is under in 16/27 Playoff Games with that mins floor. His floor is fairly secure so this is gonna be sweaty but I’m good with it at 25.5.

BOS -140

0.71u

PHI +120

J.Embiid o10.5 Rebs-145

$72.50

J.Harden o8.5 Ast-120

0.83u

M.Smart o13.5 Pts-104

0.96u

T.Maxey o6.5 Rebs+Ast-139

$50.00

BOS -2.5-110

0.91u

BOS -1 (1H)-115

1.04u

M.Brogdon o21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

Tacking on PRA - I have him at 16 pts and 24 PRA.

M.Brogdon o14.5 Pts-110

I will gladly buy low here. Before last game, Brogdon cleared this in games 1-4, and the closing game last series. The Sixers did change things up and use Danuel House a bit last game, but he’s still a plus matchup - and Brogdon still seeing a bunch of Harden minutes. Tatum and Brown’s offensive games haven’t been in sync at all, especially with Tatum struggling with his shot. And with spotty offense from the entire frontcourt (besides Tatum), I see Mazulla going with more Brogdon, as he did in the Atlanta series (should get close to 30 mins). Even with just 27+ minutes, Brogdon has cleared this line in 20/L24 going back to regular season. Brogdon should be the third option - I know it’s a flawed stat, but he does lead the team in plus/minus in the series).

BOS -2.5-110

BOS -140

$100.00

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NBA Public Betting

76ers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
76ers are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
76ers are 24-17 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of 76ers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of 76ers' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
76ers	48-33-1	24-16-1	24-17	32-16	16-17-1
Celtics	42-36-4	23-17-1	19-19-3	41-34-4	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
76ers	43-39	21-20	22-19	29-19	14-20
Celtics	43-38-1	22-19	21-19-1	42-36-1	1-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
76ers	2-4	N/A	N/A	37-11	10-24
Celtics	16-3	N/A	N/A	63-16	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 9th	@BOS	W 115-103	+8 W	O 213.5	PHI +250
May 7th	BOS	W 116-115	-	O 214	PHI -110
May 5th	BOS	L 102-114	+2.5 L	O 214	BOS +116
May 4th	@BOS	L 87-121	+7.5 L	U 215.5	BOS +260
May 1st	@BOS	W 119-115	+10.5 W	O 215.5	PHI +400