Grizzlies vs. Jazz Odds & Betting Predictions - October 24, 2024

Tailing @RoyalsProps

5.98% ev

Just tail it

Backing the rookie in his debut. Had a solid preseason, averaging 23.1 PR per 24 minutes, which I’m expecting somewhere in the ballpark of 24-28 minutes here against Utah. No JJJ tonight, expecting Edey to start at C. They’ll need him out on the floor for his rebounding against Lauri/Walker Kessler. Expecting him to split the C minutes with Brandon Clarke who’s undersized for a C. Not much to go off of data-wise for Edey, but he did actually play against Kessler in the Summer League, which he cooked him in, putting up 14 pts and 15 reb in 34 minutes. Usage should be lower here, but the dominance on the glass is encouraging. Kessler not a threat with his jumper, will allow Edey to play drop which would help his rebound chances. Last season, Utah ranked bottom 10 in second chance points and points in the paint allowed. 4th most points allowed to Cs as well.

Over in 6/9 last season, and averaged 14 R+A two seasons ago. Love the motivation factor coming off a lost/tumultuous season. No JJJ (who is someone who can create their own shot), and the addition of Edey as a plus PnR partner. He gets the Jazz who blitzed ball handlers at the point of attack last season to make them distributors - they allowed the most R+A to opposing PGs. Typically I’m worried about Jenkins rotations, but Ja is the one guy who has been immune to it the last two seasons. I expect 34+ mins tonight.

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Super high on Clarke who has been a key rotation piece for the Grizzlies. Has been injured for quite some time but has looked great in the preseason. JJJ is out and Clarke should see an increased role/minutes as I don’t see Aldama playing 30+ minutes Edey is listed as the starter and will likely only play vs Walker Kessler however the Jazz are known as of late to go small at the 5 with either Hendricks, Collins, or newly added Drew Eubanks. Just like the Raptors, the Jazz have the same coach and same problems. They allowed the most points and attempts in the paint and were bottom 5 in pick and roll defense. No new additions aside from Eubanks. Clarke is a great lob threat and has great chemistry with Morant/Bane. I expect the centers to step up to contest Morant/Bane leaving Clarke/Edey open for easy buckets.

#Tailing @PropBomb

Fliff

“I feel like in the past, we were more just in the corner, standing there waiting on stuff to happen.. I think now we are going to be more engaged. The more actions you generate, the more you’ll like find an advantage” - Aldama 10+ PTS in 3 of L4 games vs. Jazz. The Grizzlies are dealing with several injuries to their forwards as they open the season, with players like Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, GG Jackson, and Vince Williams all sidelined. This presents itself as a good opportunity for Aldama who will need to step in and likely play over 22 minutes as the floor-spacing PF in a high-scoring game against the Jazz. They tend to allow catch-and-shoot baskets, which should benefit Aldama as he faces a relatively easy matchup against Lauri and Collins. There could be more scoring chances for Aldama if the opposing team focuses more on containing Ja Morant and there's no guarentee rookie C Zach Edey plays full minutes. Aldama had a strong performance in the preseason, scoring 19 points in the dress rehearsal finale while playing alongside the starters and JJJ out which was great to see for what the role would look like tonight. He also seems to be in good form after playing for Team Spain in the Olympics, where he averaged 17.7 points per game. #PlayerProps

The Huddle got it first at a better price The Jazz take on the Grizzlies on Wednesday and this line is a bit light for Lauri, especially with the news now that Jaren Jackson Jr is going to be missing the opener. Lauri exceeded this line in 58% of games last season while averaging 23.2 points per game. I think the Jazz are going to be in the Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper sweepstakes this year but we should still see Lauri play when he is healthy, especially in the home opener. Lauri saw an uptick in his scoring at home as well and averaged 24.2 ppg at home last year. Here, I expect Lauri to get his shots up in what should be a fast-paced game with Ja Morant back at the helm for the Memphis Grizzlies. Couple this with the likely reliance on Zach Edey at the 5 for Memphis and we should see a bit of a mismatch for Lauri to exploit if the Grizzlies need to play in a drop or try to put Santi Aldama on Lauri. I'll back Lauri Markkanen to exceed 21.5 points and would reduce risk but find it playable at 22.5 as well.