Lakers vs. Wizards Odds & Betting Predictions - January 31, 2025

Nut matchup vs WAS without Anthony Davis and DFS so he’ll start, but has averaged just 0.51 PRA per min this season in similar situations per RotoGrinders CourtIQ. Assuming he sees 27 minutes, that puts him closer to 13.77 PRA in a neutral matchup. RotoGrinders projections have him at 27 mins and 16.8 PRA, which makes sense as that factors in the matchup. Some fragility here as it’s possible he sees a larger workload than expected, but I think based on his rates this season I like the under.

ESPN

Kuz is over this line in 13/23 w/ 23+ MIN - AVG 8.83 RA and 15.7 pRA. In games w/o Brogdon and w/ Poole w/ 23+ MIN, he's over in 11/15 - AVG 9.9 RA and 17.4 pRA. A recent lineup change helped Kuz see a noticeable increase in facilitating - Kyshawn has started over Bub the last three games and as a result Kuz has gone frorm 5.2 pAST a game to 7.0 pAST in the L3. In the L3 he's AVG just 2.0 AST on 7.0 pAST, so he's due for some positive regression and this is a great spot @ home vs. LAL w/o AD. Even with the poor conversion rates, he's over this line in 2/L3 w/ 15, 7, 11 RA and the miss was a 30 point blowout by the 3Q so he played just 21 MIN. LG vs. LAL he recorded 14 RA and that was with AD active protecting the paint. In three games w/o AD, LAL are 2-1 and both wins were single digit games and they're also 3-6-1 ATS as away favorites, which should help limit a blowout. L3 with the lineup change, Kuz has seen 16, 14, 15 REB chances and the absence of Sarr didn't effect his RC LG. LG vs. LAL Kuz saw 13 REB chances - when Kuz see's 12+ RC in a game he's over this line in 6/7 games - AVG 8.3 REB and 12.1 RA. LAL rank #13 in REB and #24 in AST. W/o AD, they should also play up to WAS T5 pace. LG we saw Kuz check Bron a good amount, but with Kyshawn starting now I think we see Bilal/Kyshawn take the Bron/Reaves assignments, which will leave Kuz on a lower USG Rui.

Lakers have clear advantages – offense ranks 11th in FG% (47.7), while Wizards sit at 29th (43.6). They just got smoked 111-88 by L.A. last week. Key edge in transition – L.A. forces 12.8 TOs per game, Washington struggles with 15.4. Lakers also top-10 in AST/TO ratio, keeping possessions efficient. Washington’s struggles are glaring – lost 15 straight, worst record in the NBA. They allow 122 PPG (30th), struggle in 3PT defense (36.4 Opp 3P%). At home, they’re just 5-18 ATS, Lakers 13-9 ATS on the road. Washington ranking 27th in points in paint allowed. Wizards' last five losses by an average margin of 19.2 points. LeBron (13 assists last meeting) thrives against Washington’s weak perimeter D. Lakers’ bench scoring outmatches Washington’s, giving them another edge.

#Tailing @JoeDellera

Kuzma faces off against the Lakers on Thursday night and he always tries to push a little bit extra against his former team. He is averaging a double double against them in his career, the only team in the league lol. He has exceeded 6.5 in 6/6 games since 2022 and is averaging 10.2 over this stretch. His last 4 games are 9, 12, 10, 16. This is worth running up a little bit given the motivation exists against them plus the absence of Anthony Davis.