Magic vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - February 7, 2024

… lost h2h now with even or better Rest Overall: 150-103-3,59% (ROI:15%) Season:12-8-2,60% (ROI:14%)

With the Heat struggling (lost 8/L10), butler has looked really engaged of late. 28, 26, 31, 24 and 21 in the last 5, and is over this line in 19/L24 with 30+ minutes. And while the Magic are stout defensively as a team, I don’t see this is a prohibitive matchup for Butler. Averaging 21.5 ppg, with the Heat averaging 110 ppg. Heat implied at 108.3 tonight - don’t see the justification for the lower line for Jimmy Buckets.

Avg 10+ potentials L10 games. Over in 2/3 vs MIA this season.

Collab w/ @JoeDellera Suggs is averaging 9.8 PPG over the last seven games with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. But I’m expecting some more upside where his shooting will be needed vs. Miami. This average goes to 14.6 PPG in the seven games this season playing at least 24+ MIN alongside Paolo/Franz where he faces a bottom 10 spot-up defense (MIA #30 ranked), scoring 10+ PTS in five of the six games. Miami has ran a lot more zone with Jimmy and Rozier over the last 8 games, limiting points in the paint, instead funneling points to shooters. They allow the 4th most C&S FGM in this stretch - where Suggs takes 47% of his made shots. Miami will look to want to take away the #1 options in Paolo/Franz & Fultz does not have an outside shot. A good comparison happened just last game where Kawhi struggled, but spot-up shooter Norman Powell scored 16 PTS from jump shots. And finally to add, Suggs can even get a little more minutes used for his defense on guards Herro/Rozier. #PlayerProps

In the late-night lab with @propbomb 🤝 Getting this out now because we expect it to move. Suggs has a solid matchup against the Miami Heat who play a ton of zone. With Jimmy and Rozier, the Heat are allowing the 4th most Catch and Shoot FGM. This is a scheme that his spot-up shooting can exploit. Suggs’ defense has also kept his minutes extremely stable. When he’s played 20+ minutes (which is all but 5 games this season), he has averaged 13.1 ppg with a hit rate on the 9.5 points in 78% of games. He’s exceeded this line in 4/4 games vs Miami over the last two seasons and this is a great opportunity to continue that. He has the best matchup between himself, Franz, and Paolo, plus Fultz can't shoot from the perimeter. Couple that with the fact that Orlando may be in the trade market, and it’s entirely possible a couple extra minutes unexpectedly open up between now and tip. We like Suggs to exceed his 9.5 points prop.