Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - June 7, 2024

NBA Finals Game 1 favorites 17-2 (89%) SU since 2005. Home teams in Game 1 of Finals 37-10 (79%) since '76-'77 merger, 24-4 (86%) since '96.

@ChrisRaybon

NBA Finals Game 1 favorites 16-3 (84%) ATS since 2005

Home/favored Finals team in G1 is 16-3 ATS last couple decades per BetLabs, 17-2 SU. 31-9 SU in 16g format. Bet the better team at home to start the Finals, this is what you played all year for.

Over in 9-of-14 (64%) playoff games . 29.5 PPG in 34.0 MPG in 2g vs. DAL this year.

@TurveyBets

Daniel “Cardio” Gafford

Fading Sandy

Not buying it

Projection leans to the over in this spot and a +ev bet with devig odds of -142 over on Pinnacle giving us value at this number

Projection leans to the over in this spot and a +ev bet with devig odds of -133 over on Pinnacle giving us value at this number

Projection leans to the over in this spot and a +ev bet with devig odds of -138 over on Pinnacle giving us value at this number

Projection leans to the over in this spot and a +ev bet with devig odds of -151 over on Pinnacle giving us value at this number

Took over 5.5 rebounds each game this series.

Jrue Holiday may have the toughest defensive assignment of the series if he’s tasked with guarding Luka Doncic; however, this likely results in a number of possessions where Doncic is on Jrue on the other end. Boston will look to put Luka in action and Holiday’s vision both in transition and as a pick and roll ball handler will pay dividends here. Jrue showed in the Indiana series that you cannot hide poor defenders on him otherwise he will exploit that matchup. In two regular season matchups, Jrue logged 6 and 7 dimes and he has averaged 4.6 per game on 7.9 potentials per game during the Playoffs. Here, in a Game 1 we should expect Jrue to continue being an anchor for this Celtics team on both sides of the floor in at least 33 minutes which is the fewest he has played in any game during this Postseason run. When he has played 33 mins this season he has averaged 5 APG and exceeded this line in 58% of games. I’ll grab Jrue over 4.5 dimes in Game 1.

Pritchard saw a declining role in the last two games vs. IND after shooting 10-13 from the three-point line (77%) off the bench in the four-game stretch prior and should now face some harder challenges to stay on the court in this upcoming series vs. DAL. His role off the bench may not be as successful as it's used to, especially considering his smaller stature and the defensive pressure from players like Kyrie and Luka. With Porzingis back, Pritchard has moved down the depth chart, and the 6th man role now belongs to Al Horford. In the March 1st game, excluding garbage time, Pritchard had the lowest +/- on the team. Given how Dallas will likely target him, it wouldn't make sense for Mazzulla to play him when both Luka and Kyrie are on the court in the future. Unless there is a blowout, Pritchard would usually lose playing time to Derrick White. However, because of how valuable his spot-up shooting efficiency is, there's no reason to reduce his minutes. When he's on the court, his low 14.8% Playoff Usage Rate means his offense is limited to spot-up looks, and he's usually the 3rd-5th option on the court. His offensive role is used as an energy jolt off the bench, but because of how well Boston counters zone defense with their shooting, I find it hard to see Pritchard get easy looks from the perimeter. The odds for him to make fewer than 1.5 three-pointers are -260, as long as he plays significant minutes unless it's a blowout and White/Holiday stays out of foul trouble. For Game 1, assuming Porzingis is on a minute limit and Pritchard gets a longer leash early in the series, I project him to play 17-22 minutes off the bench, with playing time to keep shrinking as the series continues. Assuming he doesn't make 2+ 3-Pointers (as the defense will focus more on him than Horford), he averages 4.3 PPG, falling under 5.5 points in 90% of the games (9 of 10 instances). #PlayerProps

#Tailing @PropBomb

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE!!! Shams reported he back for Game 1. Averaged over 2x 3PT in home games. Has hit 21 of 30 home games (70%), including playoffs.

I’ll take a swing with @TheBMatt

#Tailing @TheBMatt

Hit in last 5 games, no reason to not go back to it.

Is Daniel Gafford the new Myles Turner? People are asking @SBK5065

Public stoning of Dallas