Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 20, 2024

5.24% ev

4.55% ev

J. Murray ⬆️ 9.5 RA's (+110 @ MGM)(+132 w/ 20% Boost) **Performance Trends** Consistency: Murray has surpassed 9.5 rebounds + assists in 7 of his last 10 games. Season Average: He's averaging exactly 10 rebounds + assists per game this season, hitting this mark in 63% of his games overall. **Matchup Breakdown** Portland's Defensive Struggles: The Trail Blazers are allowing the 5th-most rebounds and 7th-most assists per game to opponents. Against Point Guards: Specifically, Portland ranks 15th in rebounds allowed and 9th in assists allowed to opposing point guards. This positions Murray well to exploit their weaknesses. **Recent Activity** Although Murray has fallen short of this line in his last two games, his underlying metrics remain promising: Rebound Chances: Averaging 7 opportunities per game. Potential Assists: Averaging 9.5 potential assists per game, suggesting he’s still heavily involved in Denver’s playmaking and rebounding efforts. **Market Value** This line offers approximately +20 points of expected value (EV) compared to other sportsbooks, many of which price this prop at -110 or worse.

Discussed on Cash That Podcast and in The Huddle This is my top rithmm projected prop. He is averaging 10 RA on the season and he’s hit this in 88% of games with two misses at 7 RA. I simply think this line is too low and should be either 8.5 or even 9.5. MPJ has significant rebound upside and his assists floor is strong while also having some upside there against a porous Portland defense. I generally think of RA as almost a Usage stat, and he’s always on the floor. If you can’t get the RA pivot to 5.5 R.

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