Suns vs. 76ers Odds & Betting Predictions - January 7, 2025

15.24% ev

7.52% ev

Beal/Nurkic have been moved to a bench role, which allows Dunn/Plumlee to enter the starting lineup. I think the biggest beneficiary from this situation is Booker - Beal's scoring actions are very similar to Book's (PnR/DHO). Book see's a +10.97 PTS/100 increase when Beal isn't on the floor, which is by far the largest jump from any Suns player (by 6 points). Book's USG also increases +3.32% to 29.81%. Overall, Book has covered this line in 14/27 games w/ 27+ MIN - AVG 24.85 PTS and 18.4 FGA. Book went under this line last game vs. PHI but Embiid was out, which changes PHI defensively. Now that he's active, PHI actually have a presence around the rim and Embiid is solely playing drop coverage and not switching defensively - Book AVG a 53.0% pullup FREQ% and should see that rise with less Beal-shared minutes. Booker also leads PHX in PnR scoring/volume. Recent guards vs. Embiid who lead their team in PnR scoring: - Curry: 30 PTS - covered - Simons: 25 PTS - covered - Clarkson: 17 PTS - covered - Tatum: 32 PTS - covered - Paul: 12 PTS - covered PHI ranks league AVG in PnR FREQ% but I'm sure if Embiid was playing the whole season they'd rank closer/in the T10 (#11 highest last season).

"I’m just ready for whatever. Some nights I’ll be able to do something like tonight, and that’ll be what I need to do. Other nights, I’ll just--it'll strictly be on one side of the ball, the defensive end. So that’s just how it goes for guys like me." - Caleb Martin. The above is a quote and exactly what you want to hear from Caleb Martin coming off a 17-point game vs. BKN in where he started 7/7 FG and finished with 88% shooting. Knowing his role as the 4th-5th option and defensive POA attacker with the star players, nights like these are random, and now Kelly Oubre Jr. who missed the last three games, is now upgraded to questionable vs. his former team. But zooming out to selective data when he plays w/ Embiid + Maxey + George, he averages 8.5 PPG and sees an average of a 10.3% usage rate in the 8 games when all are playing. The thre games he went over were vs. SAS (Embiid in-game injury), BOS (outlier & Embiid 11 points), & last game vs. BKN with a perfect 7-7 FG start. Tonight, he’ll meet up a Suns team that’s making lineup changes to improve their defense in the right direction. They rank 5th best in spot-ups (35% of Caleb’s PTS) and his 1.5 3PM is favored to go under at -195. In situations where this happens, Caleb goes under his prop in 6 of the 6 games played. #PlayerProps

6.19% ev

Bet365

8.3% ev

Fliff