Suns vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 30, 2023

Suns at Nuggets

12:30 am • TNT

Phoenix Suns

2-4

107

107 - 125

Denver Nuggets

4-2

125

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Suns 2-4	+4-112	o227-110	+148
Nuggets 4-2	-4-108	u227-110	-176

Sunday 12:30 a.m.

April 30, 2023

Ball ArenaDenver

N.Jokic o8.5 Ast-110

1.1u

K.Durant o27.5 Pts-108

PHX +700 (Live)

0.2u

PHX +13.5 (Live)-110

0.5u

PHX +4.5 (Live)-110

0.55u

J.Murray o22.5 Pts-130

0.77u

K.Durant o27.5 Pts-120

0.83u

C.Paul o8.5 Ast-103

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D.Booker u5.5 Ast+110

Booker cleared this in 3 of 5 games against the Clippers, but now seems like a good time to fade his assist prop. Despite averaging +8.5 minutes per game in the playoffs, Booker’s potential assists per game has dropped from 10.7 in the regular season to 10.6 in the playoffs. That’s because his pass rate per minute and potential ast/pass rate have dropped off significantly. He’s banked on a 60% potential assist rate (52% on the season) to keep his assist rate high, but his luck should run out soon. The Suns team total is 10 points lower than their average points per game last series against the Clippers. Another reason why I love this under and I’m projecting this closer to -135

J.Murray o6.5 Ast+110

1.1u

Murray only cleared this in 2 of 5 games last series despite averaging 2.0 more potential assists per game. He was only able to convert on 50% of his potential assists (59% on the season), so look for his assist rate to spike up a bit going forward. There’s a chance he opts to pass at a higher rate with CP3 on him in this series. Seems like a good time to buy low on Murray ast prop. Projecting this closer to -135 so getting plus odds here is nice

DEN -3.5-105

Over 227-105

J.Okogie o9.5 Pts+Rebs-120

0.5u

D.Booker o5.5 Ast-135

D.Booker o6.5 Ast+150

0.75u

J.Murray o22.5 Pts-125

0.6u

Joining you on this @SBK5065

PHX +136

D.Booker o10.5 Rebs+Ast-113

K.Caldwell-Pope o2.5 3pt M+450

1.35u

Bet at Bet365. Already on O1.5 3PT +130. It’s 🪜 Time.

K.Caldwell-Pope o1.5 3pt M+130

1.3u

Bet at Bet365. Nuggets on 3+ Days Rest entering Game 1. Bounce-back Game for KCP. He shot 60% from 3PT on 3+ Days Rest in 7 games this season. Hit 2+ 3PT in five of them. Hit 3x and 4x 3PT vs Suns during regular season. Starting and will likely need to be on floor more to guard Paul/Booker. Great ladder spot.

DEN -2.5-110

0.91u

Better team, at home, my series winner, line under a bucket. Just keep it simple.

D.Booker o5.5 Ast-125

0.5u

Buckets. 6.7apg in Durant games. o6/8 reg sn and 3/5 playoffs and playing huge minutes. Line should prob be 6.5 and will be soon enough 🪣

D.Booker o36.5 Pts+Ast-102

0.25u

Via @TurveyBets

DEN -145 (1H)

0.83u

-127 on Barstool

N.Jokic o25.5 Pts-105

0.5u

DEN -3-109

DEN -2.5-110

$100.00

DEN -2.5-111

0.45u

N.Jokic o12.5 Rebs-120

0.42u

D.Booker o9.5 Ast+850

0.1u

D.Booker o5.5 Ast-125

0.8u

DEN -2.5-108

Over 224.5-110

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Suns	36-45-1	16-24-1	20-21	26-34-1	10-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Suns	36-46	17-24	19-22	28-33	8-13

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Suns	0-4	N/A	N/A	40-21	9-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	MIN	W 112-109	-10 L	O 220.5	DEN -500
Apr 24th	@MIN	L 108-114	-4.5 L	U 222.5	MIN -190
Apr 22nd	@MIN	W 120-111	-1.5 W	O 222.5	DEN -120
Apr 20th	MIN	W 122-113	-8.5 W	O 222	DEN -355
Apr 17th	MIN	W 109-80	-8.5 W	U 225	DEN -350