Thunder vs. Pacers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 27, 2024

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THE BOUNCE 📽️: 8.17 Asts If you don't want a sweat, this might not be for you. However, I'm here for it at plus money. Tyrese Haliburton faces a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team excelling defensively this season. While Haliburton has averaged 9 assists over his last 10 games, his potential assists per game (13.6) suggest a high conversion rate. However, OKC’s defensive profile makes this a challenging spot for the Pacers’ star. **1. Defensive Efficiency:** OKC allows the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this season (42.4%). This impacts the likelihood of Haliburton’s passes converting into assists. The Thunder allow the 3rd fewest assists per game overall and to point guards specifically, making them one of the toughest matchups for assist-heavy players. **2. Points in the Paint (PITP):** Haliburton relies on his bigs, like Myles Turner, to score inside the paint. However, OKC has been stingy in this area, allowing the fewest PITP this season. This could force the Pacers to rely more on perimeter scoring, further limiting Haliburton’s assist opportunities. **3. Downward Trend in Potential Assists:** Compared to last season, Haliburton's potential assists are down from 17.8 to 15.0 per game. This dip in opportunities, coupled with a challenging defensive matchup, reduces his chances of hitting a high assist total. **4. Recent Performance:** Haliburton has gone under this mark in 6 of his last 10 games. Notably, four of those unders were close, landing at exactly 8 assists, indicating a tight margin in his performance relative to prop lines.