Timberwolves vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - March 8, 2025

RotoGrinders projections have him at 14 minutes and 10.31 PRA. Heat only have 10 players and yet he’s not starting, suggesting there’s just a bunch of fragility here as his role might be shrinking coming off the bench. Just embracing the variance here and the unknown. Can get this at 16.5 on UD.

First off we're getting a point of value here - the PTS/AST lines add up to 23 PA on the hook and the rest of the market is priced at 22.5. I also think Randle is being underpriced, his PA line is typically set to 23.5-24.5 and he's now three games back from his injury. Randle has recorded 23, 21, 34 PA since returning and the game he ended on the hook he only played 3 MIN in the 4Q because of a blowout (-5 spread here). On the season, he's over 33/47 (70%) w/ Ant when playing 25+ MIN - AVG 24.3 PA on 14.3 FGA and 8.0 pAST. Randle stepped right back into the same role since returning, he's AVG a 26.0% USG% (AVG 25.4% on season) and a slightly increased facilitating role - AVG 9.3 pAST on 40.7 passes made (AVG 7.9 pAST on 35.6 passes). 48.8% of Randle's FGA come in the paint and MIA do a good job of limiting action around the rim, but given their injuries they may not have the same success. LG w/o Ware/Wiggins they allowed a 67.6% eFG% in the paint - 63.6% is the highest AVG a team allows on the season. Mobley is most comparable to Randle and recorded 19 PA (hooked). If MIA reverts to their zone defensive scheme, Randle's PA will benefit the most. He'll be the one who sets up at the nail to break the zone - from there he can facilitating to spot up shooters/cutters or look for his shot. 52% of Randle's AST come from made 3s and since he returned that number is up to 58%. MIA allows the 12th most APG off made 3s and 8th highest APG off made 3s per 100 possessions. Against the T10 in APG to made 3s per possession, Randle is over this line in 11/13 w/ 27+ MIN - AVG 28.4 PA and 5.3 AST. Randle's already covered this line vs. MIA w/ 23 PA and I vividly remember this game since we took Randle AST then too. It was a early Sunday game and very sloppy yet he hit

Gave this out on the BUCKETS pod.

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