Creighton vs. San Diego State Odds & Betting Predictions - March 26, 2023

DK: Trammell has averaged 9.8 points this year, and there's no reason to think that would go UP against Creighton's 14th ranked defense per kenpom. Trammell averaged those 9.8 points in games where SDSU averaged 71.2 points, but their team total today is just 66. In addition, Creighton isn't the ideal matchup for him as they work hard to prevent shots from downtown, allowing threes point attempts at the 9th lowest rate in the nation. That's not ideal for Trammell, who makes 41.1% of his points, a full 10.3 percentage points above the national average, from downtown. Creighton also fouls at the 2nd lowest rate in the nation, and Trammell makes 21.6% of his points from the charity stripe, which is 3.3% above the national average. Projecting Trammell for just 8.2 points.

Butler has been clearing this at a higher rate recently and a lot of that has to do with him chipping in more offensive rebounds lately. However, Creighton has allowed the 11th lowest off reb rate in the country. They are also a good shooting team (24th in eFG%). Butler fouls at a very high rate for a guard and he’s always a risk of picking up 2 quick fouls and seeing limited playing time as a result. Projecting him closer to 2.8 with a 64% chance of staying under 3.5

small hedge/middle on final four ticket but definitely lean their way… may add if they go down

IMO - would wait to play this live at almost EV

Should be the 5th option today. Scores essentially half his baskets at the rim, which is where SDSU’s defense is strongest (Mensah). SDSU has several guys who can match with Kaluma. 3 straight tourney games in which he was 5th in FGA amongst the starters. This game will be a grind - Creighton implied at roughly 9 points less than their season average. With possessions at a premium, and Kaluma a foul trouble liability (SDSU draws fouls on 26.6% of possessions - top 11 percentile), I don’t have Kaluma touching double digits.

The @katefreeman GFPOTD

Also 1H ML -120

Pro Systems +2 w $% // +6 (Projection CRE -6)

Projection - 6.6: For more, check out BettingPros.

This is ML -130

At DK: #KeepRollingItUp

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