2018 Bahamas Bowl Betting Odds: Florida International-Toledo
- Odds: Toledo -7
- Over/Under: 56
- Date: Friday, Dec. 21
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
The Bahamas Bowl spread took a sharp turn less than 24 hours before the game, when news broke that FIU quarterback James Morgan wouldn't play because of an injury to his throwing arm.
That sent the line flying up in Toledo's favor, and also dropped the total.
Market Moves for Toledo-FIU
By Danny Donahue
Since opening, 64% of bets and 69% of dollars have taken the points with FIU, which initially dropped this line to FIU +5, and even +4.5 at a few books. Then, on Thursday afternoon with the announcement that Morgan wouldn't play, the line went to Toledo -7.
The total has been of interest for any weather-based bettors. With high wind speeds expected throughout the game, 71% of bets accounting for 98% of dollars have hit the under, moving this total down from 66.5 to 58.5. On Thursday, it dropped another 2.5 points to 56 with the injury news (see live betting data here).
Trends to Know for Bahamas Bowl
By Evan Abrams
In the fifth edition of the Bahamas Bowl at Thomas Robinson Stadium, weather is supposed to be beautiful and 80 degrees, but wind is projected to be about 20 MPH.
Since 2005, only six bowl games have been played with wind above 15 mph, and those games are 5-1 to the over, going over the total by 9.4 points per game. During the regular season, games with at least 15 mph winds go under about 57% of the time.
What Does FIU Do Without Morgan?
By Steve Petrella
FIU quarterback James Morgan was named Conference USA's newcomer of the year, and he was the catalyst behind a revitalized FIU offense. Without him, where do the Panthers turn?
Morgan's backup is redshirt junior Christian Alexander, who has thrown 68 passes in four years with the program. He's more adept as a runner, gaining 91 yards on 11 carries with two touchdowns this season.
There were rumblings that Morgan would miss the Bahamas Bowl, so it's quite possible Alexander has been running with the first team through all of FIU's bowl practices. Expect the Panthers to rely heavily on the run.
FIU Will Need its Run Game
By Stuckey
FIU has a really inefficient offense, but it is fully capable of hitting explosive plays (12th in IsoPPP+), particularly in the run game. That’s good news against a really poor Toledo run defense that ranks 119th overall (S&P) and 111th against rushing explosiveness.
And while its run offense can break one at any time, FIU will also give up plenty on the ground. The Golden Panthers allow 5.0 yards per rush, which ranks outside of the top 100. Toledo ranks in the top 20 in yards per rush (5.3) and has the 12th best S&P+ rushing offense.
The Rockets should dominate the trenches on offense and move the chains with ease against FIU. Toledo’s offense ranks fourth and 17th in Opportunity Rate and Stuff Rate, respectively. It will face a defense that ranks 115th in both categories.
Don’t expect many punts in this one, but FIU should be much more worried if they do as Toledo's Diontae Johnson is one of the best punt (and kick) returners in the game.
FIU Ain't Played Nobody
By Stuckey
FIU, which has played nobody all year (127th strength of schedule) has also been one of the luckiest teams in the nation (benefiting from 3.9 points per turnover luck per game). FIU’s best win came against MTSU at home by three points in a game it had a post-game win expectancy of 22%. It other wins came against:
- Old Dominion
- UMass
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- Rice
- Western Kentucky
- UTSA
- Charlotte
Gross.
Who's More Motivated?
By Stuckey
Both teams got smoked last year in their respective bowls so I don’t see a big motivational discrepancy here. FIU is only 1-2 in bowls in program history with its only win ironically enough coming against Toledo in 2010.
The Rockets have much better bowl pedigree and should be happy to see any other team but App State, which it lost to in each of the past two bowls in 2016 and 2017.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
Toledo has some explosiveness of their own, specifically in the ground game. The Rockets not only have a rushing explosiveness rank of 31st, but are complimented with an efficiency rank of No. 8 on the ground. With an opportunity and stuff rate within the top 20, Toledo is able to gain yards on the ground in any down and distance.
This should be a problem for the Florida International defense that ranks 114th in rushing S&P+, with ratings outside the top 100 in opportunity rate, stuff rate, average third-down distance, and third down success rate.
Florida International ended the season with a -1.1 Second Order Win Total, which illustrates how much good fortune the Panthers had. They are +9 in net turnovers but have a havoc ranking of 90th overall. Some credit should go to the offensive line, as Florida International ranks fifth overall in sack rate. Toledo will combat with a successful defensive line that ranks 21st in team sacks.
Plenty of signs point to each team being able to score at will, with Florida International through the air and Toledo on the ground. But the Action Network total is projected at 55.5, under the current total.
As for the side, I will go with Toledo in this spot up to -8 — The Action Network power ratings have this at Toledo -5, and Morgan is worth at least three points.
The projected winds will have an affect on the passing attack of FIU, which now could be non-existent without Morgan. Although both teams struggle to contain explosive plays, it’s the Rockets who have an overall efficiency rating of 40th on offense (compared to the Golden Panthers rank of 89th) that should be the difference in this ball game.
Collin's Pick: Toledo up to -8 and under 58.5
